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LP awards talk

Jeremy Blackman · 87 · 3108

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Jeremy Blackman

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on: November 17, 2021, 03:17:07 PM
Awards conversation around Licorice Pizza — speculation, punditry, concerns, reactions — can go in this thread.
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wilberfan

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Reply #1 on: November 17, 2021, 03:20:42 PM
I've expressed this in the Shouter once, but I'll be concerned if Alana wins an Oscar for Best Actress.  Nominations are fine, but a win like that just sets too high a bar.  How do you top that?   It would be undeniably thrilling in the moment, but...


WorldForgot

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Reply #2 on: November 17, 2021, 03:40:18 PM
That's such an uphill climb it's not worth the worry.


Yes

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Reply #3 on: November 17, 2021, 03:57:40 PM
Alana isn't going to win anything but critic awards and breakthrough prizes.

Right now I think nominations for:
Picture
Director
Actress
Supporting Actor
Screenplay

Editing will be a longshot. Maybe Bridges can get another Costume nomination but it's a tough category. Same for Production Design. Cinematography will be unlikely

Possible win in Screenplay. Cooper would have won Supporting if the role wasn't so small but he has strong reviews and memorable enough for a nomination


pynchonikon

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Reply #4 on: November 17, 2021, 04:07:26 PM
 :yabbse-grin:



wrongright

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Reply #5 on: November 17, 2021, 04:19:27 PM
Alana isn't going to win anything but critic awards and breakthrough prizes.

Right now I think nominations for:
Picture
Director
Actress
Supporting Actor
Screenplay

Editing will be a longshot. Maybe Bridges can get another Costume nomination but it's a tough category. Same for Production Design. Cinematography will be unlikely

Possible win in Screenplay. Cooper would have won Supporting if the role wasn't so small but he has strong reviews and memorable enough for a nomination

Less nominations than Phantom Thread? If that were to be the case, then I don't think he can get into Director.

I think first reactions to "Don't Look Up" will be today or tomorrow. Best Picture may be already crowned then.


WorldForgot

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Reply #6 on: November 17, 2021, 04:32:48 PM
wrongright, speaking of crowns - The King's Speech v Social Network, which was your horse?


PaulElroy35

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Reply #7 on: November 17, 2021, 04:36:45 PM
Alana isn't going to win anything but critic awards and breakthrough prizes.

Right now I think nominations for:
Picture
Director
Actress
Supporting Actor
Screenplay

Editing will be a longshot. Maybe Bridges can get another Costume nomination but it's a tough category. Same for Production Design. Cinematography will be unlikely

Possible win in Screenplay. Cooper would have won Supporting if the role wasn't so small but he has strong reviews and memorable enough for a nomination

Less nominations than Phantom Thread? If that were to be the case, then I don't think he can get into Director.

I think first reactions to "Don't Look Up" will be today or tomorrow. Best Picture may be already crowned then.

Dont look up looks  a bloody mess


Yes

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Reply #8 on: November 17, 2021, 04:38:05 PM
Alana isn't going to win anything but critic awards and breakthrough prizes.

Right now I think nominations for:
Picture
Director
Actress
Supporting Actor
Screenplay

Editing will be a longshot. Maybe Bridges can get another Costume nomination but it's a tough category. Same for Production Design. Cinematography will be unlikely

Possible win in Screenplay. Cooper would have won Supporting if the role wasn't so small but he has strong reviews and memorable enough for a nomination

Less nominations than Phantom Thread? If that were to be the case, then I don't think he can get into Director.

I think first reactions to "Don't Look Up" will be today or tomorrow. Best Picture may be already crowned then.

LOL. You must either be a Leo stan or a JLaw stan (I refuse to believe Adam McKay has stans) if you truly believe Don't Look Up is going to be a contender for the win. You worry about accessibility and reviews yet Adam McKay is one of the most polarizing directors currently. Its so funny what you pick and choose.

Why would 5 total nominations not be enough for a Director nomination? Just the last few years alone

Another Round- 2 total
Cold War- 3 total
Room- 4 total
Get Out- 4 total
Foxcatcher- 5 total
The Big Short- 5 total
Promising Young Woman- 5 total
Lady Bird- 5 total
Black Klansman- 6 total
Manchester By the Sea- 6 total
Minari- 6 total
Nomadland- 6 total
Parasite- 6 total
Spotlight- 6 total


wrongright

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Reply #9 on: November 17, 2021, 04:42:48 PM
The Academy really likes Adam McKay. Vice still got all those nominations with middling reviews. So the quality of DLP won't even really matter. But most of the reactions from test screenings say it's great. This will definitely, at the very worst, be received better than Vice. Combine that with the star-studded cast, I don't see how it'll be stopped. Except for maybe Belfast.


Yes

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Reply #10 on: November 17, 2021, 04:51:49 PM
The Academy really likes Adam McKay. Vice still got all those nominations with middling reviews. So the quality of DLP won't even really matter. But most of the reactions from test screenings say it's great. This will definitely, at the very worst, be received better than Vice. Combine that with the star-studded cast, I don't see how it'll be stopped. Except for maybe Belfast.

The Academy really likes PTA. He has 8 personal nominations. The most out of any living director who has yet to win. He's surely adding 2 more at very least with Licorice Pizza. Adam McKay won PGA with Big Short and it still didn't win BP--just Screenplay. That was a star-studded cast and also lost the SAG Ensemble. He can have enough fanbase to get nominations but if it's polarizing and divisive, that will hurt wins potential.

I hate the Ruimy guy but:
Quote
The 145 minute film has been receiving polarizing reactions from its early screenings, with just a scant few actually hating it. In fact, I’m getting the same vibes from these mixed reactions as I got from McKay’s last film, “Vice,” which had a mixed reception in advanced screenings before being wholly embraced by the Academy with 8 Oscar nominations.

A reader who saw the film at a recent test screening in June told me that it was a global warming satire with a lot of the same meta-editing McKay brought to his last two films (“The Big Short” “Vice”). This person also mentioned Meryl Streep, Leonardo DiCaprio and Mark Rylance (playing a Bill Gates/Warren Buffet-type) as the most likely to receive awards attention.

Meanwhile, Jennifer Lawrence’s lead scientist isn’t much of a chewy role for the actress as she is mostly used as a narrative device for the audience. Timothee Chalamet, and Cate Blanchett have limited supporting roles. The version that is being screened runs a whopping 2 hours and 25 minutes in length and is said to be very “Brecht-ian.”

The main gripe for detractors of the film has to do with tonal aspect of the narrative which ranges from dark drama to goofy comedy. McKay seems to have created a high-wire balancing act of genres, whether it ends up working is a question that could be answered after Thursday’s screening.

The Playlist awards writer also mentioned Netflix isn't exactly positioning it as an awards player:


wrongright

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Reply #11 on: November 17, 2021, 04:55:22 PM
"Yet" being the operative word. And now Being the Ricardos has been very well received and is a contender. They're all just waiting to see DLU.

Do you think PTA will win for this?



wrongright

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Reply #12 on: November 17, 2021, 05:01:25 PM
wrongright, speaking of crowns - The King's Speech v Social Network, which was your horse?

Of the two, TSN. But I would've voted for True Grit that year.


Yes

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Reply #13 on: November 17, 2021, 05:02:00 PM
"Yet" being the operative word. And now Being the Ricardos has been very well received and is a contender. They're all just waiting to see DLU.

Do you think PTA will win for this?

If PTA wins, it would be Screenplay which I don't think is totally impossible given the reviews and how most winners have been the "cool choice"... Promising Young Woman... Belfast can still win Picture without Screenplay.


WorldForgot

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Reply #14 on: November 17, 2021, 05:08:23 PM
wrongright, speaking of crowns - The King's Speech v Social Network, which was your horse?

Of the two, TSN. But I would've voted for True Grit that year.

Ahh, word! Certainly a better vote than King's Speech, imo. That Best Picture win was the one the broke my young faith in Academy Awards.


 

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