Started by picolas, August 12, 2010, 03:48:51 AM

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okay so this thread will probably end up just being me talking to myself but i wanted to get some predictions officially published/out there so i can hopefully point at them later. based solely on pre-show interviews, these are my top 4 picks for people who i believe will go very far and/or win Survivor: Nicaragua.

#4 Kelly

- it'll be tough for Kelly to get to the final three with such an obviously great/sympathetic story, but she is apparently a big fan of the show, and i'm certain she won't be gone early just cause she's the determined disabled person (and super athletic to boot), so perhaps she can manoeuvre her way to the top.
- doing it for her father will dovetail nicely with my #2 pick.. i can see them as allies. and you know the young tribe will probably dominate the first half of the game. (it's 30 and under vs. 40 and over, at least initially).

#3 Marty

- 'i'm not gonna be the guy riding on coattails.' i like.
- seems quite intelligent and well-spoken. well, he must be since he
- helped manage yahoo. which could help him stay emotionally detached enough to make big moves/eliminate people who, for example, he might like personally but aren't good for his game.
- has a kind of elder jimmy smits vibe. never a bad thing.

#2 Chase Rice

- right off the bat, his name is a sentence. but not just any sentence. it actually fits the show. foreshadowing.
- nascar pit stop guy/footballer is a perfect background for the team-based challenges.
- couldn't play the football he wanted to. winning this for his dad. nice motivation/story. just don't tell the wrong people when you're out there...
- not the least bit arrogant. 'anyone can win.' and yet still likes everyone at first glance. great combo.
- just seems like a solid, grounded dude. tough to break. i think he'll be the kind of guy who leads without people knowing he's the leader.

#1 Yve

- has an air of mystery about her. i think she can keep secrets/withhold information in a non-sneaky-seeming way.
- has a zen quality. not at all nervous about playing this game.
- eloquent.
- ambitious. "this is the perfect environment for me to make my first million."
- being an actor should help.
- has a broad knowledge of the show. has been a fan for a while. this can only be a good thing.
- nickname was yvil yve... she will know when to be evil.

random people i'm looking forward to:

Jimmy Tarantino

half-Canadian representation. loves to work. hasn't really watched the show before, though. i predict he'll be a really cheerful pawn in some alliance, then get cut loose towards the end.

Jimmy Johnson

biggest celebrity they've ever had. i didn't know much if anything about him before this but he strikes me as a cool guy. his pitch that no one would ever give him the million is a good one too. he just has so much to live up to and he's the oldest guy out there. i don't know if he can make it to the merge.


is good at motivating children. "even the little ones that ...suck." contradicts self. will definitely be a good ol' douchey villain.


goat farmer/military nurse who can take care of a problem in a nice way.


can be a rainbow, a stallion, lightning, or just a beast. and a lethal weapon, AND a SECRET weapon SO secret, no one even knows. or a firecracker.

the rest: (make your predictions!)

of course, it's so hard to tell how these people will actually react to each other and the game. i'm not writing anybody off yet.


my #4 and #1 were just eliminated in a double boot :(. #3 is hanging by a thread. if i had to choose a winner right now i would go with brenda, but that seems far too obvious! i can say with 90% certainty it will be a young person though.


Brenda is in control of the game right now for sure, but she'll have to screw over too many people to win the jury vote. If Fabio makes it to the end, he'll win the whole thing; he's just way too likable.  Here's my official prediction, though: Naonka and Alina in the final two, Alina wins eight votes to two.  It sounds insane, but I feel like Alina is a much stronger under-the-radar player than she's getting credit for, and nobody will realize until it's too late. And Naonka will still be around because everyone wants to go to the final two with her. Bitch is crazy.
My house, my rules, my coffee


fabio would be a Fantastic winner. i'm getting vibes they'll want to get rid of him cause he's too unpredictable though. yeah, na may be the biggest goat ever. i wouldn't be surprised if she made it. alina is a gutsy prediction. she just lost her closest ally, though. and i think people know she's a schemer.. chase is still in an okay spot. i'll stick with him for now..


Fabio suddenly taking on Marty as his father-figure will be his downfall.  Marty is going to have the biggest and suddenest downfall of the season soon enough, I feel, and he'll drag down with him anyone foolish enough to follow him.

If there's one moment that led me to put my money behind Alina, it was when Na was having her breakdown during the rainstorm, and Alina was comforting her.  The contrast between how truly sincere she came across at that moment with how calculating she was in the testimonials they intercut the scene with was an eye-opener.  This is the girl who will make it to the end simply because no one will have thought to get rid of her.  She'll saddle up with the right people, she'll always make the right votes, and she'll systematically outlast every one of them.

I like Chase, but he has one defining factor: gullibility.  So far he's thrown his trust behind Brenda and Naonka, respectively the most devious and the most batshit insane players in the season.  In his favor, smart players recognize gullibility as a useful trait to have around, so he could last quite a while, right up until the blindside that he will never, ever see coming.  His best shot is if he survives to the top six or seven and then just starts dominating the immunity challenges, which he certainly has the potential to do.  If he does make it to the top two, he'll win; I have no doubt of that.
My house, my rules, my coffee


Pic, please tell me I'm not going crazy, and that this group of Survivors really are making the dumbest, most baffling decisions of any season.  Why is Dan still around??  Why is Marty still around???  Why did they think they could just ask him to give up the idol, and why on god's green earth did he do it????  And why the fuck didn't they vote him out after he did????????????

I swear, I haven't yelled at my TV this much since the Seahawks lost the Super Bowl.
My house, my rules, my coffee


that's why i'll never watch survivor again after that one time.

it's too infuriating to watch, it doesn't make any sense and by the time there's a winner you just don't give a shit.

it's much more entertaining to read about here, pic makes it sound like there's order to the chaos when in reality it's just his highly systematic view of the world imposing himself on a crap reality show.
under the paving stones.


haha whatever..

polk: i think everything after the challenge this week was a great example of terrible editing, which sometimes happens because the producers want to maintain suspense about who's going until the last possible second and/or don't want to explain complicated votes by sacrificing another 5 minutes of the show. australia was a huge victim of this stuff. there were alliances they never even showed us.. anyways, it's unfortunate, but the golden rule of survivor editing is to make the boot a surprise*. we knew it was marty or jill, so to explain the seemingly idiotic split votes along with why they decided to spare marty would mean revealing who was going to go. i have no theory as to why the votes were so stupid. marty handing over the idol is really hard to understand too, though he did kind of explain it.. it's only worth one round guaranteed, but handing it over is potentially worth two or more. in his mind. his twisted, yahoo-executive mind.

i think the merge will make everything a lot simpler.

*this was cleverly subverted ONCE in the amazon, when sexist homophobe roger got the boot; a hilarious episode of pent-up annoyedness and secret joy. sadly, i don't think they've ever sacrificed suspense for something potentially more interesting since.


okay.. upon seeing who actually voted for who, the split votes make sense (although not voting for marty is still a mystery). it was a matter of brenda/sash/purple knowing where all the votes were going and deciding not to let jud/jane in on it, cause they could have a majority with 3. that kind of thinking could hurt them next episode depending.. i actually think a lot of next week's outcome will rest on whether benry can figure out his position (towards the bottom) of the dominant young alliance and how quickly he needs to turn things around..

this is how i see the current totem:

the people in power are brenda, sash, purple kelly, chase, na.
voting with the people in power are benry, jud (they wouldn't vote for each other either)
clinging to the people in power are jane, holly
people with little to no power/bonds are marty, alina, dan

so the people outside of power can afford to lose ONE person before turning things around. but if they lose two, the final five will almost certainly be those guys. it'll be a tough alliance to break apart considering they have two idols.


All right, I'm prepared to admit that I may have been wrong.
My house, my rules, my coffee


throughout this whole season whenever it comes down to two people they always vote out the more interesting one. it's starting to make me angry. i'm a bit disgusted by the idea of a sash/na/dan final three... we'll see. i'm shocked by how little everyone is considering the idols. sash is managing to keep himself out of the spotlight somehow even though he continues to slip up with phrases like "i don't want to start breaking promises right away"...


Sash is as blatantly shady as a person could be.  It's solely a reflection of Brenda's power in the game that he doesn't have a target on his back.  I'm really ready to see that alliance start to crack.

On a side note, has a player ever gone this far while making as little an impression as Purple Kelly?  Every time she appears in a shot, I have to remember who she is.  I don't even know what her voice sounds like.
My house, my rules, my coffee


Pic, what do you think about the new season? As much as I enjoy Russell, his game is too predictable to keep it interesting for a third time in four seasons. Rob at least has evolved his game over the course of his many appearances. None of the new players have left a positive impression on me yet, but that's not unusual after one episode.
My house, my rules, my coffee


i missed your post.. what an AMAZING first episode.

- philip is already a legend. if he stays around long enough he may actually eclipse coach's legacy of self-delusional humour... he's a GOLDMINE.
"we're in what i like to call the 'hyper state of arousal'".
"...and you're looking at the new leader *ridiculous headshot pose*".
"franchesqua... sorry. i have a dry throat. that i've been getting treatment for."
*cuts francesca off* *finishes what he's saying* *francesca begins to reply* "EXCUSE ME. I DIDN'T CUT YOU OFF"
"i don't need two people talking at once."
he's so fantastically contradictory, and has absolutely no understanding of how the game works. his meltdown at tribal based on francesca lying in a stupidly obvious way is what this show is about.. you'd never believe it if it was scripted television.
- i was sad to see francesca go, but i'm glad she's not completely out of it. she was an awesome narrator.
- i was rooting for kristina based on pre-game interviews and she totally delivered during the first half, but then she made some of the dumbest decisions ever... i really like her moxie though. i think she made the wrong moves because she was too freaking excited to play. hanging onto the idol was badass. she still has at least 6 days left to turn everything around.
- rob looks to be fairly unstoppable. even if his fully-established, drooling cult turns against him or he gets on the wrong side of a tribal swap (which i don't think will happen because it would be a disadvantage to rob/russ and the producers want them around as long as possible), he's too good at challenges not to make it back from redemption. i think his only problem would be losing too many challenges pre-merge.
- i'm kind of excited to finally see russell get voted out.

right now i really like david based on pre-interviews, his quick sizing up of russell, and his alliance with that army guy. although he's a bit of an obvious 'smart' player.


I felt the same way about David. He obviously has an inherent affinity to the intellectual aspects of the game, but I worry that it might be at the expense of his ability to play a social game. Sometimes in Survivor you have to play dumb to get along, and I doubt he's willing or able to do so.

Kristina came out of the gate playing way too hard way too fast. One tribal council in and she already has zero supporters left in her tribe. Yeah, she has the idol, and she was smart enough not to waste it, but Rob is so good at hidden idol strategy, it won't buy her much time.

I CAN'T WAIT for Russell to go to Redemption Island. He'll turn into fucking Col. Kurtz out there.  Then he'll pick off one by one everyone who gets sent out there, and just imagine that smug grin on his troll face when he gets brought back into the game.  Can. Not. Wait.

And lastly, Phillip really is a wonder.  I'm not convinced he's not secretly a Sasha Baron Cohen character.
My house, my rules, my coffee