2011 Xixax Awards: FINAL VOTE!

[modage]

LAST DAY y'all. We're going to get in all the votes BEFORE the Oscars and Awards should be announced sometime this week.

[polkablues]

I'm getting more and more convinced that King's Speech is going to walk away with the Oscars, so we here at Xixax have an obligation... nay, a DUTY... to once again succeed where the academy has failed. So please, vote your asses off, so this sense of smug superiority can carry us through another year.

[socketlevel]

don't underestimate the preferential ballot. it's the very reason avatar didn't get it last year. With preferential you only win when you have 50.1% of the vote.

I suspect that the kings speech will be a lot of #1 choices for the Oprah crowd in the Academy, but it won't be the Top 5 for a lot of others. In the past, with 5 nominations and the first-past-the-post system I think this crowd was the majority, look to years like when the English patient won. but in that system theoretically they'd could only have to get 21% of the vote and still win. Granted that would be a very competitive 5 way split. My guess is if the majority had their ballot still count after their first choice was eliminated, they wouldn't have sided with the front runner.

So let's just say the kings speech gets 40% of #1 choices, and social network gets 25%, black swan gets 15% and true grit gets 14%. As soon as true grit is eliminated, they tally those votes up and half goes to social network as the #2 choice and the other half to black swan and a small % goes to kings speech. At that point it could look like this: Kings speech 43%; social network 30.5%; black swan 20.5%. Then black swan is eliminated and all those votes went to social network. we end up with Kings speech 43.5% and social network with 50.5%.

This is truly a great system by my tastes, and it's more democratic. The crowd that i feel goes for the safe vote has a much weaker voice then they used to. To generalize, i believe people that would vote for social network wouldn't have the kings speech as their #2 vote as likely as true grit or black swan. I might eat my words on this when the day comes but i believe the two best shots at the academy award are black swan and the social network because they appeal to both crowds. As long as they get enough votes to last the initial rounds of the preferential system, they'll pick up a lot of 2nd choices based on what gets eliminated.

we'll see.

EDIT - sadly last i knew of the system the preferential ballot is only used for best picture. you might be right with all the other awards based on the first-past-the-post reasons i just mentioned.

[polkablues]

I've long said that the US should switch to an instant-runoff election system like that.  We'll see if it works on the Oscars first.  I hope you're right.

[socketlevel]

I've long said that the US should switch to an instant-runoff election system like that.  We'll see if it works on the Oscars first.  I hope you're right.

It worked last year, depending on if you wanted avatar to lose.

[Pwaybloe]

I completely forgot.  No way for me to send in a vote?

[socketlevel]

I was wrong....

[modage]

Winners coming soon...  Any predictions?