Author Topic: Box Office Guesstimations  (Read 53743 times)

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Kal

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« Reply #150 on: June 19, 2005, 11:40:47 AM »
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We can say that Batman 'tanked' in a way... they were expecting over $100 million in the first 5 days and they only got $71,000,000... less than Mr. and Mrs. Smith for the weekend only... not good for one of the biggest summer blockbusters and considering they spent billions in marketing

1 Batman Begins WB $46,935,0002
2 Mr. and Mrs. Smith Fox $27,300,000
3 Madagascar DW $11,100,000
4 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $9,700,000
5 The Longest Yard Par. $8,000,000
6 The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl (3D) Dim. $6,633,000 -
7 The Perfect Man Uni. $5,478,000
8 Cinderella Man Uni. $5,233,000
9 The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants WB $3,170,000
10 The Honeymooners Par. $2,570,000

modage

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« Reply #151 on: June 19, 2005, 11:02:39 PM »
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i shouldnt care, but i do.  A LOT.  i really want this to do well.
Christopher Nolan's directive was clear to everyone in the cast and crew: Use CGI only as a last resort.

Kal

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« Reply #152 on: June 19, 2005, 11:26:02 PM »
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me too... but it wont be so great... it will be 'ok'...

hollywood is in big trouble anyways, with the bo down this year big time, and they are starting to face the reality of home video as a major deal

yes they make so much money from home video that it seems like good news, but the investments in movie theatres and distribution are also a big deal... and they will lose control if theatrical is not the money making vehicle it was until now

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« Reply #153 on: June 26, 2005, 02:42:24 PM »
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'Batman Begins' Wins Box Office Amid Slide

"Batman Begins" took in $26.8 million to remain the top movie for the second straight weekend, but it could not keep Hollywood from sinking to its longest modern box-office slump.

Overall business tumbled despite a rush of familiar new titles "Bewitched," a "Love Bug" update and the latest zombie tale from director George Romero.

Revenues for the top 12 movies came in at $116.5 million, down 16 percent from the same weekend last year, when "Fahrenheit 9/11" opened as the top movie with $23.9 million, according to studio estimates Sunday.

It was the 18th weekend in a row the box office declined, passing a 1985 slump of 17 weekends that had been the longest since analysts began keeping detailed figures on movie grosses.

"Batman" lifted its 12-day total to $121.7 million.

Nicole Kidman and Will Ferrell's sit-com update "Bewitched" debuted in second place with $20.2 million.

Audiences were lukewarm toward the weekend's other major premieres. "Herbie: Fully Loaded," with Lindsay Lohan behind the wheel of the speedy VW "Love Bug," was No. 4 with $12.75 million, raising its total since debuting Wednesday to $17.8 million.

"George Romero's Land of the Dead," the fourth installment of the flesh-munching zombie saga from the director of "Night of the Living Dead," debuted at No. 5 with $10.2 million.

In narrower release, the documentary "Rize," about the south-central Los Angeles dance form known as krumping, opened at No. 12 with $1.6 million.

In limited release, the nature documentary "March of the Penguins" had a strong debut of $121,788 in four theaters. "Yes," starring Joan Allen, Simon Abkarian and Sam Neill in a drama about an affair between an Irish-American married woman and a Lebanese man, opened with $29,437 in seven cinemas.

Theater revenues have skidded about 7 percent compared to last year. Factoring in higher ticket prices, movie admissions are off 10 percent for the year, according to box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations.

If the slump continues, Hollywood is on course for a third straight year of declining admissions and its lowest ticket sales since the mid-1990s.

"We're working with a pretty huge deficit that would take a lot of business to overcome," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations. "Just breaking the slump is not enough. We would have to reverse the trend and see attendance on a big uptick."

Even with a big Fourth of July weekend expected from Steven Spielberg and Tom Cruise's "War of the Worlds," which opens Wednesday, Hollywood still may not snap its losing streak. Over the same weekend last year, "Spider-Man 2" pulled in $180 million in its first six days, leading the industry to a record Fourth of July.


1. "Batman Begins," $26.8 million.
2. "Bewitched," $20.2 million.
3. "Mr. and Mrs. Smith," $16.75 million.
4. "Herbie: Fully Loaded," $12.75 million.
5. "George Romero's Land of the Dead," $10.2 million.
6. "Madagascar," $7.3 million.
7. "Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith," $6.25 million.
8. "The Longest Yard," $5.5 million.
9. "The Adventures of Sharkboy and Lavagirl in 3-D," $3.4 million.
10. "Cinderella Man," $3.3 million.
“Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art.” - Andy Warhol


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Kal

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« Reply #154 on: July 04, 2005, 01:22:41 PM »
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Aliens overran the box office as War of the Worlds was the holiday weekend's expected champ with $77.6 million for the four-day frame. The Spielberg-Cruise action thriller made $64.5 million Friday through Sunday, for $113.3 million since Wednesday. While certainly a great opening, it didn't break any records for July -- all those would be held by Spider-Man 2, which took in an untouchable $115.8 million Friday through Sunday last year. Instead, War was the July bridesmaid, ranking second for the Fourth of July weekend and July three-day openers. And since Spidey Deux did so well last year, the box office was of course down again, 16% for Friday through Sunday and almost 25% for the four day frame.

A fair number of holdovers managed to do pretty decently, led by Batman Begins, which nabbed second with $18.7 million, only a 43% slide. Mr. and Mrs. Smith also held up nicely, dropping 39% for $12.7 mil; Bewitched, however, fell 55% for $10.8 mil. Kiddie flicks Madagascar and Herbie: Fully Loaded took the top ten's smallest drops, though new opener Rebound landed with a thud at seventh with only $6 million. And congratulations of a sort should go to Land of the Dead, which tumbled a huge 74% for $3.2 million and tenth place, the biggest slide we can remember since Hulk.

Sunday estimates for the weekend box office of July 1-4:


War of the Worlds ($77.6M)
Batman Begins ($18.7M)
Mr. and Mrs. Smith ($12.7M)
Bewitched ($10.8M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded ($10.5M)
Madagascar ($7M)
Rebound ($6M)
Revenge of the Sith ($5M)
The Longest Yard ($3.5M)
Land of the Dead ($3.2M)

MacGuffin

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« Reply #155 on: July 11, 2005, 02:47:44 PM »
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"Fantastic Four" Foils Slump

Yoda couldn't do it. Batman failed, too. It finally took the heroics of Fantastic Four to stop that most nefarious of villains--the dastardly Box Office Slump.

Clobbering time, indeed!

The flick about a quartet of dysfunctional superheroes earned an incredible $56 million, leading the box office to its first up weekend after a record 19 straight downers, according to preliminary studio figures Sunday.
 
If estimates hold the top 12 movies will have grossed $140.9 million, a 2.2 percent gain over this time last year when fellow Marvel do-gooder Spider-Man 2 headlined the lineup.

The truly fantastic gross for Fantastic Four was a welcome surprise. Bruce Snyder, head of distribution for Fox, said he'd anticipated something in the high $30 million range, but "it exploded...and you know why? Because it's fun!"

"It's great. This shows that the right movie with the right marketing, will bring the people in," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations. He believes that Fox may even have slightly underestimated Sunday's numbers, so that when final figures are in Monday, the overall tally will be up even more--something sorely needed by a business that has been trashed week after week this year.

"It's what people want in a summer movie. It's popcorn. It's light-hearted," said Dergarabedian. The PG-13 action adventure, stars Ioan Griffudd, Jessica Alba, Chris Evans and Michael Chiklis as astronauts transformed into mutants who must save the day from megalomaniac baddie Dr. Doom, played by Julian McMahon.

Audiences ignored the critics, who mainly whined that the comic-inspired movie played, well, like a comic book. All demographics flocked to the 3,602 sites, generating a per-theater average of $15,547.

As creator Stan Lee might say: Excelsior!

The film was the fifth-best July opener ever on a list led by last year's Spider-Man 2's whopping $88.1 million during the first three days of the Fourth of July weekend.

Nearly 41 percent of those purchasing tickets for the top 12 attractions chose Fantastic Four, leaving the weekend's other wide release, Dark Water, barely treading water. Buena Vista's PG-13 frightfest, a remake of a Japanese horror flick, stars Jennifer Connelly as desperate mom who makes a very bad rental choice, managed to attract about 7 percent of the weekend business, grossing $10.1 million in fourth place. Its per-site average was $3,811 at 2,657 theaters.

Meanwhile, War of the Worlds dropped 52 percent from its first-place opening, with $31.1 million in second place. The PG-13 Paramount release, directed by Steven Spielberg and starring Tom Cruise, has grossed $165.8 million.

Batman Begins held steadier, dropping just 35 percent to $10.2 million in third place. After four weeks, the Christian Bale-fronted Caped Crusader origin tale has grossed $172.1 million for Warners.

But it was another Warners film that had the weekend's best per-screen average. The G-rated Warner Independent release March of the Penguins expanded to 64 sites and waddled up $16,094 per site for $1 million. The feel-good nature documentary has now totaled $1.9 million.

Among the newcomers in limited release, the best screen average belonged to Saraband, the great Swedish director Ingmar Bergman's latest--and possibly final--look at the troubles of marriage, starring Liv Ullmann and Erland Josephson. The R-rated Sony Pictures Classic averaged $8,788 at four sites for $35,153.

Murderball, the documentary about wheelchair sport, also opened strongly. The R-rated ThinkFilm release averaged $7,650 at eight sites for $61,200.

Cṛnicas, an R-rated Palm thriller starring John Leguizamo, averaged $4,760 at nine sites for $42,838. Beautiful Country an R-rated Sony Pictures Classic about a child of the Vietnam conflict seeking his heritage, averaged $4,422 at six sites for $26,532.

Besides being "thrilled to death" by the Fantastic Four business, Snyder trumpeted the fact that Fox had three other films in the top 10 to help fuel the uptick in business. The Brangelina caper Mr. and Mrs. Smith was in fifth place in its fifth week, only dropping 26 percent to earn $7.8 million for a total of $158.6 million. Rebound, the hoops comedy starring Martin Lawrence that misfired in its opening last weekend, was off 43 percent, but managed to scrape up $2.8 million in ninth place for an $11.3 million gross. And the season's biggest blockbuster, Star Wars: Episode III--Revenge of the Sith, was still a force in its eighth week, earning $2.6 million for a total of $370.8 million.

Degarabedian says he's "very cautiously optimist" that this good weekend will lead to better box office ahead. Charlie & The Chocolate Factory, starring Johnny Depp as the eccentric candy man, opens next Friday, as does the anticipated comedy The Wedding Crashers with Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn. Even though its virtually impossible for this summer to match 2004, Dergarabedian says the "step in the right direction" this weekend is a good omen.

1. Fantastic Four, $56 million
2. War of the Worlds, $31.3 million
3. Batman Begins, $10.2 million
4. Dark Water, $10.1 million
5. Mr. and Mrs. Smith, $7.8 million
6. Herbie: Fully Loaded, $6.2 million
7. Bewitched, $5.5 million
8. Madagascar, $4.3 million
9. Rebound, $2.8 million
10. Star Wars: Episode III--Revenge of the Sith, $2.6 million
“Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art.” - Andy Warhol


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Kal

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« Reply #156 on: July 17, 2005, 12:17:47 PM »
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Box Office Analysis

It wasn't just a fluke -- the box office is definitely on the way back up, thanks to the one-two punch this weekend of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Wedding Crashers. Both movies outperformed expectations, with Charlie hauling in a monstrous $55.4 million (just shy of Fantastic Four's $56 mil) and Crashers going way beyond predictions with a stellar $32.2 million. As a result, the box office was up a healthy 7.5% from this time last year (when I, Robot debuted with $52.2 million) and 8.5% from last weekend.

However, because the two new debuts did so well, all the other movies this weekend took it in the shorts, most dropping around 50% or more. Fantastic Four did a fantastic 59% tumble for $22.7 million, while War of the Worlds slid by half again for $15 mil. The best holdover was stealth hit Mr. and Mrs. Smith, which dropped only 36% for $5.05 million; the worst, after F4, was Bewitched's 57% decrease.

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ($55.4M)
Wedding Crashers ($32.2M)
Fantastic Four ($22.7M)
War of the Worlds ($15M)
Batman Begins ($5.6M)
Mr. and Mrs. Smith ($5.05M)
Dark Water ($4.4M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded ($3.35M)
Bewitched ($2.4M)
Madagascar ($2.1M)

atticus jones

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« Reply #157 on: July 21, 2005, 06:39:09 PM »
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bee oh recaps and snaps

10.MADAGASCAR...coming in drunk at numb her tanker ray ten is the very upsetting mad ass gas car...this was a 502 from the get go...tagline:"someones got a zoo loose" should have been "sum exec vp's got a screw loose" or "sum movie goin fan has got to refuse"...plotline: "spoiled by their upbringing with no idea what good filmmaking is really about, four studio execs escape the asylum and go on an adventure to find their missing sense, only to find themselves on their way to the bottom of the box office list..."

9. BEWITCHED...will somebody just wiggle their nose and make this stinker go away please...be witched be bitched just be done with the lame remakes already...

8. HERBIE FULLY LOADED...which is what I would have to be in order to go see this one...maybe beer goggles could erase the wardrobe departments work on pretty miss thang and maybe the crack pipe could spark anutha exhaust ing remake...jonesin for dean...but i'm old school

7. DARKWATER...usually means we have sum poo poo contamination in the bowl...butt...me possibly smell this one soon...after all my girl is working with one of the actors from this one soon and the utha bruthas are family friends...gulp

6. MR AND MRS SMITH...if they were better assassins they could have killed eachother in the first act, called this a short film and saved us the drama...or lack thereof...plot line:"a bored married couple is suprised to learn they are both overpaid actors hired to keep pumping out below average flics while the paparazzi hound them in hopes of a picture of their genitals or sumthin..." i here it was bad...the pitts...angelie, i'm jolie i didnt waste my ten bucks on it...

5. BATMAN BEGINS...and I can't wait for it to ends because frankly I am wanting Chris Nolan to start working on some better junk...actually I know, this was supposed to be the best of the year so far...so...o.k.
i liked it...i loved it...i want some more of it...how's that for nice...you know i heard katie holmes sold her soul to scientology in order to boost the ratings on this one...and sold her snatch to tom to boost the ratings on her ca ca rear...what a bunch of shit heads the press ur...

4.  WAR OF THE WORLDS...tagline:"theyre already here"...just ask brooke shields...them evil scientologists are gonna eat you for lunch...you know, if speilberg would have let me ghost direct the last twenty minutes of each of his last five films then we...i mean he...would probably be the greatest director who ever lived...

3. FANTASTIC FOUR...tagline:"prepare for the fantastic"...o.k....i got the lights dimmed...the sexy music...the ky...a box of magnums...and only ONE jessica alba!...what happened to the other three hotties you promised...the lights went out in the theatre and I just fell asleep...chick less...

2. WEDDING CRASHERS...soon to be a hit reality tv series on FOX...where two xixax members are sent to a random wedding reception each week  to see how many babes they can score by the nights end...episode one features stefen vs...macmuffin...who ends up winning a million bucks for all the poon he starts stuffin...with bits of news and movie trivia...no one gets laid and the series gets cancelled...damn...i was looking forward to aj vs p...that would bee a phuck phest...

and numero uno at de boyo officiomente...

1. CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY...sad to say I do not hold a golden ticket to this one but if I did I would demand Noah Taylor play wonka...no offense to senor juannie deep...but nt is deserving...in my humble bumble oh pie onion...plot line:"a young boy wins a ten dollar ticket to this weeks most magnificent remake led by the worlds most unusual director...hear the ending is diff than the book tho...nice sour treat for the spoiled school children who attempt to turn in a shotty book report to their cinematic loving teachers this school year...

and thats that...thats that

its late in the dey and im feeling ghey...leyter

tnmftl...eecfo
my cause is the cause of a man who has never been defeated, and whose whole being is one all devouring, god given holy purpose

NEON MERCURY

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« Reply #158 on: July 21, 2005, 10:16:45 PM »
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oh shit!

back on ya'lls ....get the fuck out of the way janet jackosn..

my mans is dropping sum real poetic justce....

Kal

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« Reply #159 on: July 24, 2005, 12:10:58 PM »
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Ouch! That was our first reaction upon looking at this weekend's box office, where none of the four new releases managed to crack the top three. It's full-on fiasco time for The Island which opened with a terrible $12.1 million, barely ahead of remake Bad News Bears, which pulled in $11.5 mil. Both films were trounced by last week's top three, which held the same spots this week as last. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory dropped exactly 50% for $28.3 million, and comedy hit Wedding Crashers dipped just 23% for $26.2 million; Fantastic Four declined 46% for $12.3. Though the holdovers held on decently (even Batman Begins and Mr. and Mrs. Smith held on strong at the bottom of the top ten), the box office was back down, almost 8% from this time last year and almost 18% (!) from last week.

That said, a handful of limited releases managed to perform solidly. Hustle and Flow, on just 1,013 screens, took in a healthy $8.1 million, and had the second-highest per-site average in the top ten after Wedding Crashers. Grisly horror flick The Devil's Rejects, on 1,757, did an expected $7 million, and March of the Penguins barely missed the top ten, nabbing $3.55 million, up 134% as it added 563 screens.

Sunday estimates for the weekend box office of July 22-24:

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ($28.3M)
Wedding Crashers ($26.2M)
Fantastic Four ($12.3M)
The Island ($12.1M)
Bad News Bears ($11.5M)
War of the Worlds ($8.8M)
Hustle & Flow ($8.1M)
The Devil's Rejects ($7M)
Batman Begins ($4.7M)
Mr. and Mrs. Smith ($3.6M)
March of the Penguins ($3.55M)

GoneSavage

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« Reply #160 on: July 24, 2005, 12:24:33 PM »
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It's only 10:25, and granted it's the west coast, but the weekend isn't over.  Do they not count Sundays for these lists?

Kal

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« Reply #161 on: July 24, 2005, 02:47:03 PM »
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They do, but they take in consideration Friday and Saturday to predict Sunday. They are hardly ever wrong, except for 1 or 2 million at the most when it comes to a big movie (over 30 million). But if the movie made 5 million on Saturday it wont make more on Sunday, almost for sure.

GoneSavage

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« Reply #162 on: July 24, 2005, 02:51:46 PM »
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Thanks!

Myxo

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« Reply #163 on: August 07, 2005, 08:29:22 AM »
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Who thinks Stealth will break even?

It cost 100 million to make and after 6 days in release, it's at 20 million.

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« Reply #164 on: August 07, 2005, 01:49:27 PM »
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Quote from: Myxomatosis
Who thinks Stealth will break even?

It cost 100 million to make and after 6 days in release, it's at 20 million.


There's overseas sales and DVD, cable, etc. to take into account.  A film doesn't necessarily have to recoup its cost in the US box office alone to be profitable in the end.

 

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