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Film Discussion => The Small Screen => Topic started by: picolas on August 12, 2010, 03:48:51 AM

Post by: picolas on August 12, 2010, 03:48:51 AM
okay so this thread will probably end up just being me talking to myself but i wanted to get some predictions officially published/out there so i can hopefully point at them later. based solely on pre-show interviews, these are my top 4 picks for people who i believe will go very far and/or win Survivor: Nicaragua.

#4 Kelly

pre-interview (http://junketdrawer.com/survivor21/insidervids/Survivor_%20Nicaragua%20-%20Kelly%20B.swf)

- it'll be tough for Kelly to get to the final three with such an obviously great/sympathetic story, but she is apparently a big fan of the show, and i'm certain she won't be gone early just cause she's the determined disabled person (and super athletic to boot), so perhaps she can manoeuvre her way to the top.
- doing it for her father will dovetail nicely with my #2 pick.. i can see them as allies. and you know the young tribe will probably dominate the first half of the game. (it's 30 and under vs. 40 and over, at least initially).

#3 Marty

pre-interview (http://junketdrawer.com/survivor21/insidervids/Survivor_%20Nicaragua%20-%20Marty.swf)

- 'i'm not gonna be the guy riding on coattails.' i like.
- seems quite intelligent and well-spoken. well, he must be since he
- helped manage yahoo. which could help him stay emotionally detached enough to make big moves/eliminate people who, for example, he might like personally but aren't good for his game.
- has a kind of elder jimmy smits vibe. never a bad thing.

#2 Chase Rice

pre-interview (http://junketdrawer.com/survivor21/insidervids/Survivor_%20Nicaragua%20-%20Chase.swf)

- right off the bat, his name is a sentence. but not just any sentence. it actually fits the show. foreshadowing.
- nascar pit stop guy/footballer is a perfect background for the team-based challenges.
- couldn't play the football he wanted to. winning this for his dad. nice motivation/story. just don't tell the wrong people when you're out there…
- not the least bit arrogant. 'anyone can win.' and yet still likes everyone at first glance. great combo.
- just seems like a solid, grounded dude. tough to break. i think he'll be the kind of guy who leads without people knowing he's the leader.

#1 Yve

pre-interview (http://junketdrawer.com/survivor21/insidervids/Survivor_%20Nicaragua%20-%20Yve.swf)

- has an air of mystery about her. i think she can keep secrets/withhold information in a non-sneaky-seeming way.
- has a zen quality. not at all nervous about playing this game.
- eloquent.
- ambitious. "this is the perfect environment for me to make my first million."
- being an actor should help.
- has a broad knowledge of the show. has been a fan for a while. this can only be a good thing.
- nickname was yvil yve… she will know when to be evil.

random people i'm looking forward to:

Jimmy Tarantino


half-Canadian representation. loves to work. hasn't really watched the show before, though. i predict he'll be a really cheerful pawn in some alliance, then get cut loose towards the end.

Jimmy Johnson


biggest celebrity they've ever had. i didn't know much if anything about him before this but he strikes me as a cool guy. his pitch that no one would ever give him the million is a good one too. he just has so much to live up to and he's the oldest guy out there. i don't know if he can make it to the merge.



is good at motivating children. "even the little ones that …suck." contradicts self. will definitely be a good ol' douchey villain.



goat farmer/military nurse who can take care of a problem in a nice way.



can be a rainbow, a stallion, lightning, or just a beast. and a lethal weapon, AND a SECRET weapon SO secret, no one even knows. or a firecracker.

the rest: (make your predictions!)

of course, it's so hard to tell how these people will actually react to each other and the game. i'm not writing anybody off yet.
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua predictions)
Post by: picolas on October 20, 2010, 08:08:06 PM
my #4 and #1 were just eliminated in a double boot :(. #3 is hanging by a thread. if i had to choose a winner right now i would go with brenda, but that seems far too obvious! i can say with 90% certainty it will be a young person though.
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua predictions)
Post by: polkablues on October 21, 2010, 12:23:03 AM
Brenda is in control of the game right now for sure, but she'll have to screw over too many people to win the jury vote. If Fabio makes it to the end, he'll win the whole thing; he's just way too likable.  Here's my official prediction, though: Naonka and Alina in the final two, Alina wins eight votes to two.  It sounds insane, but I feel like Alina is a much stronger under-the-radar player than she's getting credit for, and nobody will realize until it's too late. And Naonka will still be around because everyone wants to go to the final two with her. Bitch is crazy.
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua predictions)
Post by: picolas on October 21, 2010, 03:52:15 PM
fabio would be a Fantastic winner. i'm getting vibes they'll want to get rid of him cause he's too unpredictable though. yeah, na may be the biggest goat ever. i wouldn't be surprised if she made it. alina is a gutsy prediction. she just lost her closest ally, though. and i think people know she's a schemer.. chase is still in an okay spot. i'll stick with him for now..
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua predictions)
Post by: polkablues on October 21, 2010, 06:48:10 PM
Fabio suddenly taking on Marty as his father-figure will be his downfall.  Marty is going to have the biggest and suddenest downfall of the season soon enough, I feel, and he'll drag down with him anyone foolish enough to follow him.

If there's one moment that led me to put my money behind Alina, it was when Na was having her breakdown during the rainstorm, and Alina was comforting her.  The contrast between how truly sincere she came across at that moment with how calculating she was in the testimonials they intercut the scene with was an eye-opener.  This is the girl who will make it to the end simply because no one will have thought to get rid of her.  She'll saddle up with the right people, she'll always make the right votes, and she'll systematically outlast every one of them.

I like Chase, but he has one defining factor: gullibility.  So far he's thrown his trust behind Brenda and Naonka, respectively the most devious and the most batshit insane players in the season.  In his favor, smart players recognize gullibility as a useful trait to have around, so he could last quite a while, right up until the blindside that he will never, ever see coming.  His best shot is if he survives to the top six or seven and then just starts dominating the immunity challenges, which he certainly has the potential to do.  If he does make it to the top two, he'll win; I have no doubt of that.
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua predictions)
Post by: polkablues on October 28, 2010, 01:50:06 AM
Pic, please tell me I'm not going crazy, and that this group of Survivors really are making the dumbest, most baffling decisions of any season.  Why is Dan still around??  Why is Marty still around???  Why did they think they could just ask him to give up the idol, and why on god's green earth did he do it????  And why the fuck didn't they vote him out after he did????????????

I swear, I haven't yelled at my TV this much since the Seahawks lost the Super Bowl.
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua predictions)
Post by: Pubrick on October 28, 2010, 02:04:24 AM
that's why i'll never watch survivor again after that one time.

it's too infuriating to watch, it doesn't make any sense and by the time there's a winner you just don't give a shit.

it's much more entertaining to read about here, pic makes it sound like there's order to the chaos when in reality it's just his highly systematic view of the world imposing himself on a crap reality show.
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua predictions)
Post by: picolas on October 28, 2010, 11:00:32 AM
haha whatever..

polk: i think everything after the challenge this week was a great example of terrible editing, which sometimes happens because the producers want to maintain suspense about who's going until the last possible second and/or don't want to explain complicated votes by sacrificing another 5 minutes of the show. australia was a huge victim of this stuff. there were alliances they never even showed us.. anyways, it's unfortunate, but the golden rule of survivor editing is to make the boot a surprise*. we knew it was marty or jill, so to explain the seemingly idiotic split votes along with why they decided to spare marty would mean revealing who was going to go. i have no theory as to why the votes were so stupid. marty handing over the idol is really hard to understand too, though he did kind of explain it.. it's only worth one round guaranteed, but handing it over is potentially worth two or more. in his mind. his twisted, yahoo-executive mind.

i think the merge will make everything a lot simpler.

*this was cleverly subverted ONCE (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq8HJEqR-y0) in the amazon, when sexist homophobe roger got the boot; a hilarious episode of pent-up annoyedness and secret joy. sadly, i don't think they've ever sacrificed suspense for something potentially more interesting since.
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua predictions)
Post by: picolas on October 29, 2010, 04:28:50 PM
okay.. upon seeing who actually voted for who, the split votes make sense (although not voting for marty is still a mystery). it was a matter of brenda/sash/purple knowing where all the votes were going and deciding not to let jud/jane in on it, cause they could have a majority with 3. that kind of thinking could hurt them next episode depending.. i actually think a lot of next week's outcome will rest on whether benry can figure out his position (towards the bottom) of the dominant young alliance and how quickly he needs to turn things around..

this is how i see the current totem:

the people in power are brenda, sash, purple kelly, chase, na.
voting with the people in power are benry, jud (they wouldn't vote for each other either)
clinging to the people in power are jane, holly
people with little to no power/bonds are marty, alina, dan

so the people outside of power can afford to lose ONE person before turning things around. but if they lose two, the final five will almost certainly be those guys. it'll be a tough alliance to break apart considering they have two idols.
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua predictions)
Post by: polkablues on November 03, 2010, 10:55:04 PM
All right, I'm prepared to admit that I may have been wrong.
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua predictions)
Post by: picolas on November 04, 2010, 07:38:54 PM
throughout this whole season whenever it comes down to two people they always vote out the more interesting one. it's starting to make me angry. i'm a bit disgusted by the idea of a sash/na/dan final three... we'll see. i'm shocked by how little everyone is considering the idols. sash is managing to keep himself out of the spotlight somehow even though he continues to slip up with phrases like "i don't want to start breaking promises right away"...
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua)
Post by: polkablues on November 04, 2010, 09:25:30 PM
Sash is as blatantly shady as a person could be.  It's solely a reflection of Brenda's power in the game that he doesn't have a target on his back.  I'm really ready to see that alliance start to crack.

On a side note, has a player ever gone this far while making as little an impression as Purple Kelly?  Every time she appears in a shot, I have to remember who she is.  I don't even know what her voice sounds like.
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua)
Post by: polkablues on February 17, 2011, 05:27:45 PM
Pic, what do you think about the new season? As much as I enjoy Russell, his game is too predictable to keep it interesting for a third time in four seasons. Rob at least has evolved his game over the course of his many appearances. None of the new players have left a positive impression on me yet, but that's not unusual after one episode.
Title: Re: SURVIVOR (Nicaragua)
Post by: picolas on February 20, 2011, 10:57:45 AM
i missed your post.. what an AMAZING first episode.

- philip is already a legend. if he stays around long enough he may actually eclipse coach's legacy of self-delusional humour... he's a GOLDMINE.
"we're in what i like to call the 'hyper state of arousal'".
"...and you're looking at the new leader *ridiculous headshot pose*".
"franchesqua... sorry. i have a dry throat. that i've been getting treatment for."
*cuts francesca off* *finishes what he's saying* *francesca begins to reply* "EXCUSE ME. I DIDN'T CUT YOU OFF"
"i don't need two people talking at once."
he's so fantastically contradictory, and has absolutely no understanding of how the game works. his meltdown at tribal based on francesca lying in a stupidly obvious way is what this show is about.. you'd never believe it if it was scripted television.
- i was sad to see francesca go, but i'm glad she's not completely out of it. she was an awesome narrator.
- i was rooting for kristina based on pre-game interviews and she totally delivered during the first half, but then she made some of the dumbest decisions ever... i really like her moxie though. i think she made the wrong moves because she was too freaking excited to play. hanging onto the idol was badass. she still has at least 6 days left to turn everything around.
- rob looks to be fairly unstoppable. even if his fully-established, drooling cult turns against him or he gets on the wrong side of a tribal swap (which i don't think will happen because it would be a disadvantage to rob/russ and the producers want them around as long as possible), he's too good at challenges not to make it back from redemption. i think his only problem would be losing too many challenges pre-merge.
- i'm kind of excited to finally see russell get voted out.

right now i really like david based on pre-interviews, his quick sizing up of russell, and his alliance with that army guy. although he's a bit of an obvious 'smart' player.
Post by: polkablues on February 20, 2011, 11:11:28 AM
I felt the same way about David. He obviously has an inherent affinity to the intellectual aspects of the game, but I worry that it might be at the expense of his ability to play a social game. Sometimes in Survivor you have to play dumb to get along, and I doubt he's willing or able to do so.

Kristina came out of the gate playing way too hard way too fast. One tribal council in and she already has zero supporters left in her tribe. Yeah, she has the idol, and she was smart enough not to waste it, but Rob is so good at hidden idol strategy, it won't buy her much time.

I CAN'T WAIT for Russell to go to Redemption Island. He'll turn into fucking Col. Kurtz out there.  Then he'll pick off one by one everyone who gets sent out there, and just imagine that smug grin on his troll face when he gets brought back into the game.  Can. Not. Wait.

And lastly, Phillip really is a wonder.  I'm not convinced he's not secretly a Sasha Baron Cohen character.
Post by: picolas on February 20, 2011, 03:04:23 PM
hahaha yes he's already at least 15% kurtz as is. and yes, philip's comedy is almost TOO perfect. i wonder what the interview process was like/how much they had to withhold their laughter and joy.

i was also a fan of how stephanie handled russ' proposition. of course she agrees, but she's also adamant they stay away from each other. it's a classic case of russ being more played than player, as with parvati.
Post by: picolas on February 24, 2011, 11:14:02 PM
i think that episode probably marked rob and russ at their worst, gameplay-wise.

rob's insane paranoia over a HANDSHAKE needlessly burned two allies and turned a mighty 6-way alliance into a tribe of 4 vs. 3. if ONE person flips, he's in trouble. not to mention he's in terrible shape for the merge.

russell's arrogance is embarrassing now.
"maaaaaaybe there was a clue..."
"WAS there??"
"maaaaaybe there was..."
"did you take it?"

it was like when homer needed to take credit for being mr. x. so stupid. it's kind of fascinating how pathetic he is now. so pumped for him to leave.
Post by: polkablues on February 25, 2011, 12:29:17 AM
I don't think Rob seriously decided to vote what's-his-hair out based on his congratulating the other team. He had already decided to do it, and that was the excuse that he found to be able to sell the idea to his core subset alliance. He was concerned about the connection between Hair and Lemur Girl, and he wanted to break up any strong alliance that wasn't directly to himself.

You could certainly make the case that they just weakened themselves in challenges, and I'd be very sympathetic to that argument, but from his perspective, he still has the numbers, and in fact strengthened his core three allies, and he eliminated a potential future threat before it had a chance to develop. The other choice would have been voting out Phillip, and Rob sees him as a useful idiot. He has his vote for now, and Phillip's not sly enough to backstab him without telegraphing it days ahead of time.

Russell is still a bloviating jackass, though. You got that part right.
Post by: picolas on February 25, 2011, 03:28:59 PM
oh yeah it wasn't his primary reason although i think he was genuinely on edge about the handshake because he was talking about it in confessionals. targeting Hair just cause he's bonding with Lemur is so premature. if i was in that core alliance, i would be uber paranoid from rob's ability to perfectly orchestrate a blindside like that. he burned two very friendly bridges on day six.
Post by: MacGuffin on May 25, 2011, 05:17:47 PM
The fact that no one has commented here for months just shows what a boring and predictable season this was, with a cast of drones without personallities. Rob wasn't the evil mastermind he was made out to be; he was just surrounded by mindless idiots. He was like the Pied Piper leading the vermon along.
Post by: polkablues on May 25, 2011, 05:30:54 PM
Rob played a textbook-perfect game.  No one else even bothered to play.

Phillip's batshit craziness kept me entertained, though.  Without him, it would have been an entirely forgettable season.
Post by: picolas on May 26, 2011, 01:16:14 PM
yeah it's pretty unfortunate how everything went after kristina was eliminated. on the other hand, i did find rob's dominance kind of fascinating, and it's crazy to think that i've witnessed this man's ten-year journey, at times rooting for and against him. i'd say he played the perfect AGGRESSIVE game, but i still might put Tom or JT's game ahead for essentially making everyone like them too much. i was LOVING phil's storyline when it looked like he might rise up and overthrow the rob zombies, but he crossed the line into annoying after the merge. his final tribal performance was incredible, though. all around funniest final tribal ever. i really liked the moment when rob copped to the fact that he was a harsh ruler, but found that extremely effective within the game. knowing he would never play again.. it was like a dying sensei revealing his secrets before ascending to another plane..

i cannot think of who the next two returnees could be... was richard hatch out of prison long enough?
Post by: polkablues on May 26, 2011, 02:17:20 PM
I want it to be Phillip and Coach so bad, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Parvati and Amanda, or Parvati and Stephenie. Some combination like that. Maybe not Stephenie, since she really played poorly her last time out.
Post by: picolas on May 26, 2011, 04:05:27 PM
i forgot to add: i think this season showcased how shitty the final three really is. it makes the players far less likely to take chances both strategically and socially, because you can afford to be someone's second-best ally and still make it to the end. with final two you NEED to be the number one person or find someone else who will have you as their number one. the idea of final three allows people like grant, ashley, natalie, and phil to believe even if they aren't closest to rob, he could still be taking them to the end. it just makes being a puppet way more enticing. if they ever reinstate final two again, they need to let everyone know at the start of the game. it would stir shit up.
Post by: MacGuffin on March 15, 2012, 10:46:45 AM
Can I punch Colton in the face and not be arrested for gay bashing? It would be justified, right?
Post by: polkablues on March 15, 2012, 12:56:45 PM
He's the worst.  His smug little kid face when things go his way is just made for punching.

In a sense, he's following the Russell Hantz game plan, which is to act like you're in charge and berate people who question your right to be in charge until they simply acquiesce.  Unlike Russell, he doesn't do anything that would make him otherwise valuable to keep around, such as help at camp or be good at challenges.  Russell unwittingly perfected the second-place game, but I would be amazed if Colton makes it to the top seven.  He would have been voted out already if he wasn't surrounded by such witless idiots.
Post by: MacGuffin on March 22, 2012, 08:12:10 AM
Karma's a bitch.
Post by: polkablues on March 22, 2012, 08:27:31 PM
I'm just pissed this means that a) we don't get the joy of watching him actually get voted off, and b) this SEALS THE DEAL that he will be brought back for another season.  Next year will be Colton vs. Cochran, mark my words.
Post by: polkablues on October 16, 2013, 12:05:16 AM
Have you guys been watching the new season? The whole friends & family gimmick is paying dividends. It opens up so many layers of strategy that we've never seen before in the game. It even makes Redemption Island bearable(ish).
Post by: picolas on October 16, 2013, 04:50:17 PM
yes. this is a really excellent season. the sumo challenge was so great on so many levels. i love that tyson hasn't ruined his game yet. if the coconut bandits make it to the end i'll be through the roof.
Post by: Robyn on November 03, 2017, 12:28:03 AM
what survivor season is the best? i watched the amazon one twice because I enjoyed the rob cesternino show so much, and now I want to see more.
Post by: polkablues on November 03, 2017, 01:38:22 AM
Season 16 - Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites
Season 10 - Palau
Season 19 - Samoa
Season 20 - Heroes vs. Villains (watch 19 and 20 back-to-back)
Season 8 - All-Stars (the best Boston Rob season)
Season 22 - Redemption Island (I might be the only person who loves this season)

If you just want to see Boston Rob putting on a clinic in how to play the game, watch All-Stars. If you want to see the twistiest, most strategic season ever played: Micronesia. If you want some amazing characters and storylines, watch Palau. When this show is good it's so fucking good.
Post by: Robyn on November 03, 2017, 02:23:05 AM
Can I jump straight to Micronesia even though I don't know any of the players? I have only watched that one season, so I have no idea who Boston Rob is. I talked about this dude:
Post by: polkablues on November 03, 2017, 02:33:29 AM
Oh, I got my Robs mixed up. Fortunately for you, the All-Stars season has both of them.

Regarding Micronesia, dive right in. There isn't really anything crucial you'll be missing by not watching any of the contestants' prior seasons. The big thing is don't watch Heroes vs. Villains before watching All-Stars and Palau. I would pretty much recommend watching them in the order I listed them in the previous post, just slot All-Stars in before Samoa and HvsV.
Post by: Robyn on November 03, 2017, 02:54:53 AM
thanks. watching it right away.
Post by: Robyn on November 03, 2017, 04:52:08 AM
one episode in, and it's too bad that this johnny fairplay dude was the first to go. he seemed fun!
Post by: polkablues on November 03, 2017, 01:26:47 PM
I know I said you didn’t need prior knowledge to enjoy this season, but for context it should be noted that Johnny Fairplay was a notorious jackass and liar who orchestrated a plan on his original season to earn sympathy by making the other contestants believe that his grandmother had just died. Also, Jeff Probst fucking HATES the guy and doesn’t try to hide it.
Post by: Robyn on November 04, 2017, 03:35:56 AM
that's taking it a bit too far, but he seemed entertaining enough in the episode. maybe I would have hated him if they kept him around though. i'm five episode in now, and I really enjoy it so far. Tracy plays the game pretty good. she has pretty much "saved" Chet twice now, and taken out two strong contestants in Joel and that other dude (Mike maybe?), while doing it under the radar. I don't think that people see her as a threat yet, but she seems smart, and are in that middle ground where you want to be in the beginning. good and entertaining season so far. almost every tribal council has had some kind of twist.

e: and there she went. it's impossible to predict what's going to happen tbh

e2: i'm addicted to this now, Ami got voted out in the latest episode which is sad (she was my favorite), but i'm also enjoying the Erik and Ozzy romance so it's okay. there's so much good stuff going on. i'm really curious how the fake immunity thing will play out

e3: it played out pretty good
Post by: Robyn on November 04, 2017, 08:55:55 AM
1: jason must be the dumbest contestant i've seen
2. that girl group is brilliant
3. i'm pretty much binge-watching the whole season at this point
Post by: Robyn on November 04, 2017, 10:36:07 AM
1: jason Erik must be the dumbest contestant i've seen

this is how I feel about this season:
Post by: polkablues on November 04, 2017, 12:38:19 PM
That tribal council was the best thing I’ve ever seen. I want it tattooed on the inside of my eyelids.
Post by: Robyn on November 04, 2017, 01:19:36 PM
all four of them are so good in it. Parvati manipulating him by saying "you have lost the respect from all the women here", and Amanda being really upset with him, making him REALLY believe that he has to "redeem" himself somehow. I didn't think they could top the previous tribal councils, and thought it was a done deal as soon as Erik won immunity, but they outdid themselves.

I was rooting for Amanda for a while, but changed my mind in the last couple of episodes. she came across as pretty false, and I think Parvati was more deserving of it in the end. she was the smarter of the two.

I almost watched the whole season today. I would have been ashamed if it wasn't so enjoyable.