Box Office Guesstimations

Started by Banky, March 25, 2004, 08:36:12 PM

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Ravi

Quote from: Pwaybloe
Quote from: MacGuffinHollywood's box-office slump continued as overall revenues remained down for the seventh-straight weekend. The top 12 movies took in $80.3 million, off 18 percent from the same weekend last year.

Don't worry.  Next month is May.

Yay!  Sequels and movies based on TV shows!  :yabbse-thumbdown:  :yabbse-thumbdown:  :yabbse-thumbdown:

MacGuffin

'Amityville' Tops 'Sahara' at Box Office

"The Amityville Horror" returned from the dead with a vengeance, with the gory update of the 1970s fright flick taking in $23.3 million to top the weekend box office.

The previous weekend's No. 1 movie, the African desert adventure "Sahara," slipped to second place with $13.1 million, lifting its 10-day total to $36.4 million, according to studio estimates Sunday.

"The Amityville Horror" stars Ryan Reynolds and Melissa George as a couple tormented by visions and voices in their new home, the scene of a grisly mass murder a year earlier.

The movie is the latest in a parade of successful horror remakes. With a built-in audience looking for scares and a string of hits such as "The Texas Chainsaw Massacre" "The Grudge" and "Dawn of the Dead," horror movies have become almost a sure-thing in Hollywood.

Horror movies also typically cost far less than other big studio films, whose average budgets top $60 million. "The Amityville Horror" grossed more than its $19 million budget in just the first weekend.

"The Amityville Horror" received mostly bad reviews, yet the under-25 crowd that makes up the genre's core audience rarely heeds the critics.

"The only reviews that count are the public's reviews," said Erik Lomis, head of distribution for MGM, which released "The Amityville Horror."

In limited release, David Duchovny's directing debut, "House of D," opened strongly with $30,000 in two theaters. The coming-of-age tale features Duchovny, wife Tea Leoni, Robin Williams and Erykah Badu.

Todd Solondz's "Palindromes," featuring Jennifer Jason Leigh and seven others playing the same character in a series of vignettes, debuted well with $61,434 in seven theaters.

With overall revenues down for the eighth-straight weekend, Hollywood is limping into its busy summer season. The top 12 movies took in $73.9 million, off 13 percent from the same weekend last year.

"This is a major slump," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations. "I think the industry is holding its collective breath for the turnaround. What is going to be the movie that reverses this down trend? Thankfully, summer looks really good."

Sydney Pollack's United Nations thriller "The Interpreter," starring Nicole Kidman and Sean Penn, and the Ashton Kutcher-Amanda Peet romantic comedy "A Lot Like Love," open Friday as summer lead-ins.

Next week brings the action follow-up "XXX: State of the Union," starring Ice Cube, and the science-fiction romp "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy"

May could get Hollywood back on track, with "Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith" as the industry's centerpiece for early summer.

Other big May releases include Adam Sandler's football tale "The Longest Yard," Will Ferrell's soccer comedy "Kicking & Screaming," Ridley Scott's Crusades epic "Kingdom of Heaven," the animated adventure "Madagascar," the horror remake "House of Wax" and Jennifer Lopez and Jane Fonda's comedy "Monster-in-Law."


1. "The Amityville Horror," $23.3 million.
2. "Sahara," $13.1 million.
3. "Fever Pitch," $8.8 million.
4. "Sin City," $6.7 million.
5. "Guess Who," $4.9 million.
6. "Beauty Shop," $3.8 million.
7. "Robots," $3.55 million.
8. "Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous," $2.9 million.
9. "The Pacifier," $2.4 million.
10. "The Upside of Anger," $1.9 million.
"Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art." - Andy Warhol


Skeleton FilmWorks

MacGuffin

'Interpreter' Translates to Box-Office Win

Nicole Kidman and Sean Penn's "The Interpreter" translated into solid box-office as the United Nations thriller debuted with $22.8 million to top the weekend for Hollywood.

The weekend's other main debut, Ashton Kutcher and Amanda Peet's romantic comedy "A Lot Like Love," had a so-so opening of $7.7 million, coming in at No. 4, according to studio estimates Sunday.

Expanding nationwide after two weeks in limited release, Stephen Chow's action comedy "Kung Fu Hustle" was No. 5 with $7.3 million, lifting its total domestic gross to just over $8 million.

Anthony Anderson's kidnapping comedy "King's Ransom," so bad it was not screened beforehand for critics, finished in 10th place with just $2.4 million.

In limited release, the documentary "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room" opened strongly with $70,000 at three theaters. The film offers an inside portrait of the corporate scandal at the energy company.

Overall business was down for the ninth-straight week, with the top 12 movies taking in $83.4 million, off a fraction from the same weekend last year.

"The Interpreter," directed by Sydney Pollack, stars Kidman as a U.N. translator at the center of an assassination plot after she overhears a death threat against an African dictator. Penn co-stars as a federal agent.

Reviews generally were positive, with critics calling "The Interpreter" an unusually brainy thriller.

"I think audiences were anxious for any good, solid story," said Nikki Rocco, head of distribution for Universal, which released "The Interpreter."

"The Interpreter" was a rare triumph for older audiences, with the over-35 crowd making up 60 percent of the film's viewers. The under-25 audience that drives most of the box office was divided among several movies, including "The Amityville Horror and "A Lot Like Love."

"You look at the demographic and go, how can 'The Interpreter' be No. 1? But if you put the right movie in the marketplace, the older audience will go," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations.

"A Lot Like Love," which received mixed reviews, fell short of distributor Disney's hopes that it would hit $10 million over opening weekend. Considering Kutcher's solid box-office history, including the current hit "Guess Who," the performance of "A Lot Like Love" was another sign of audience disinterest in what Hollywood has had to offer the last two months.

The slump has left the industry limping into its busy summer season, with such big titles as "Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith," "Kingdom of Heaven" and "The Longest Yard" due out in May.

"There hasn't been that breakout picture the public's jumping to see yet, but it'll happen. It's just around the corner," said Chuck Viane, Disney head of distribution.


1. "The Interpreter," $22.8 million.
2. "The Amityville Horror," $14.2 million.
3. "Sahara," $9 million.
4. "A Lot Like Love," $7.7 million.
5. "Kung Fu Hustle," $7.3 million.
6. "Fever Pitch," $5.45 million.
7. "Sin City," $3.7 million.
8. "Guess Who," $3.5 million.
9. "Robots," $3.3 million.
10. "King's Ransom," $2.4 million.
"Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art." - Andy Warhol


Skeleton FilmWorks

MacGuffin

'Hitchhikers Guide' Takes $21.7M in Debut

"The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" thumbed its way to the top of the box office, debuting at $21.7 million to beat out the explosive "XXX" brand.

Ice Cube's action tale "XXX: State of the Union" opened a weak third with $13.7 million, according to studio estimates Sunday.

"XXX" came in behind the previous weekend's top movie, "The Interpreter," starring Nicole Kidman and Sean Penn, which slipped to No. 2 with $14.2 million, lifting its 10-day total to $43.6 million.

Hollywood's pre-summer slump continued, with overall revenues down for the 10th-straight weekend. The top 12 movies grossed $84.8 million, off 10 percent from the same weekend last year, when "Mean Girls" and "Man on Fire" led the box office.

Adapted from the first of the late Douglas Adams' comically philosophical books about the nature of our big, old goofy universe, "Hitchhiker's Guide" follows the adventures of an ordinary Brit who catches a ride with aliens moments before Earth is destroyed to make way for an interstellar bypass.

Adams' books have been cult favorites for decades, but the movie's mix of cheeky humor, oddball ideas and singular visuals clearly hooked a mainstream audience. Reviews were mixed, some critics calling the movie a fitful gag reel that sapped the essence of Adams' witty prose and others finding it a refreshing dose of whimsy and irreverence.

"Obviously, the thought process of the public was, 'That looks interesting. I want to see it. It's fresh and looks different,'" said Chuck Viane, head of distribution for Disney, which released "Hitchhiker's Guide."

Critics soundly trashed the new "XXX" flick, but they also disliked Vin Diesel's original, which did more than three times the business over opening weekend than the followup.

What went wrong?

"I wish I could say," said Rory Bruer, head of distribution for "XXX" studio Sony. "Certainly, we're disappointed, because it's a film we all believed in. We have Ice Cube, who is a big star, and I think he's one of those rare actors who really can do just about anything. So I really don't know."

Ice Cube, previously known for the R-rated "Friday" movies and the saucy "Barbershop" comedies, broadened into the family market with this year's hit "Are We There Yet?" But the absence of Diesel may have undermined the movie's appeal, while fans may not have bought into rapper Ice Cube as an action hero.

"Ice Cube doesn't seem like a sweethearted dad, either, but 'Are We There Yet?' did incredibly well," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations. "Maybe people just associated Vin Diesel more with that role than anybody thought."


1. "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy," $21.7 million.
2. "The Interpreter," $14.2 million.
3. "XXX: State of the Union," $13.7 million.
4. "The Amityville Horror," $8.1 million.
5. "Sahara," $6 million.
6. "A Lot Like Love," $5.2 million.
7. "Kung Fu Hustle," $3.8 million.
8. "Fever Pitch," $3.75 million.
9. "Robots," $2.65 million.
10. "Guess Who," $2.2 million.
"Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art." - Andy Warhol


Skeleton FilmWorks

modage

Quote from: MacGuffinCritics soundly trashed the new "XXX" flick, but they also disliked Vin Diesel's original, which did more than three times the business over opening weekend than the followup.

What went wrong?

"I wish I could say," said Rory Bruer, head of distribution for "XXX" studio Sony. "Certainly, we're disappointed, because it's a film we all believed in. We have Ice Cube, who is a big star, and I think he's one of those rare actors who really can do just about anything. So I really don't know."
hmm.... my bullshit-o-meter is flashing red.  can Ice Cube really do JUST ABOUT ANYTHING as an actor?  he is of that rare breed?  does this man expect anyone to believe the words coming out of his mouth?  does he even listen to himself anymore?
Christopher Nolan's directive was clear to everyone in the cast and crew: Use CGI only as a last resort.

MacGuffin

"Kingdom" Barely Heavenly

Kingdom of Heaven ruled, but not strongly enough to oust the box-office from its current slump.

The Crusader epic debuted with an estimated $20 million, way below the $51.7 million sucked up this time last year by the vampire hunter saga Van Helsing.

House of Wax, yet another horror remake, debuted with $12.2 million in second place, not contributing enough to help overall business which continues in meltdown.

For an eleventh weekend in a row grosses were on the skids, the longest slump since the end of July through October in 2000. The total gross for the top 12 movies was just $76.8 million, a drop of 23.7 percent from this time last year, and 5 percent from last weekend.

Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations, which tallies the studios' box-office, says the below expectations debut for Kingdom of Heaven, shouldn't be blamed on its distributor Fox because "the studio did a beautiful marketing job and the movie got pretty good reviews." He reasons the weak opening for Ridley Scott's expensive, philosophical religious wars adventure has more to do with the marketplace being depressed. "It's just laying there," Dergarabedian says, hoping that when the long-awaited Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith finally opens May 19, there will be a much needed upturn in ticket sales.

Kingdom of Heaven, which reportedly cost around $150 million to produce, stars Orlando Bloom as a glamorous battler in the 12th Century Christian-Islamic conflict. Swept into 3,216 sites, the R rated spectacular averaged just $6,219, a dismal kick-off to what is now officially summer movie season. (In contrast Universal's Van Helsing, starring another glamorous guy Hugh Jackman, but rated PG-13, averaged $14,475 from 3,575 sites.)

Trying to be upbeat, Bruce Snyder, Fox's domestic distribution chief, noted that the two-thirds of the audience for Kingdom of Heaven, which also stars Jeremy Irons and Liam Neeson, was over 25, which suggests it was attracting a more sophisticated audience and hence might hold on well. Talking to Reuters, Snyder also mentioned the restrictive R rating and the film's lengthy running time, which would have made for fewer showings and hence fewer ticket sales, and mentioned the film had additionally grossed about $56 million overseas.

Back in the USA, House of Wax, Warner Bros. R rated slasher update of the camp '50s horror tale, with a young things cast that includes Elisha Cuthbert, Chad Michael Murphy and the ubiquitous Paris Hilton, was strewn across 3,111 sites where it only averaged $3,928.

Doing better on average in more limited release was Crash, the we-clearly-can't-all-get-along LA based conflict drama. Opening in fourth place, the R rated Lions Gate release - directed by Paul Haggis with a star ensemble that includes Sandra Bullock, Don Cheadle, Matt Dillon, Jennifer Esposito, Brendan Fraser, Thandie Newton and Ryan Phillippe - scored $9.12 million from a $4,882 averaged at just 1,864 sites.

Last week's top movie, the quirky space trip The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, suffered freefall, dropping 57 percent to third place, earning just $9.1 million to bring its two week gross to just $35.1 million.


Final figures are due Monday. The estimated top ten follows:

1. Kingdom of Heaven, $20 million
2. House of Wax, $12.2 million
3. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, $9.12 million
4. Crash, $9.1 million
5. The Interpreter, $7.5 million
6. XXX: State of the Union, $5.4 million
7. The Amityville Horror, $3.15 million
8. Sahara, $3.1 million
9. A Lot Like Love, $3 million
10. Fever Pitch, $2 million
"Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art." - Andy Warhol


Skeleton FilmWorks

modage

yeah i cant believe i didnt see this.  but perhaps the ol' 'wait for the dvd' excuse has finally been applicable for me.  atleast because i think the movie might be better if there was the hour back in.  but who knows, i may see it this week.  i'm conflicted.
Christopher Nolan's directive was clear to everyone in the cast and crew: Use CGI only as a last resort.

Tryskadekafobia

who would've thought we'd ever get to an age when an opening weekend of $20 million would was seen as a dissapointment?  certainly not I.

Pubrick

Quote from: Tryskadekafobiawho would've thought we'd ever get to an age when an opening weekend of $20 million would was seen as a dissapointment?  certainly not I.
it's a disappointment when these pieces of crap are costing ten times that.
under the paving stones.

meatball

Quote from: Pubrick
Quote from: Tryskadekafobiawho would've thought we'd ever get to an age when an opening weekend of $20 million would was seen as a dissapointment?  certainly not I.
it's a disappointment when these pieces of crap are costing ten times that.

Yeah, crap should be cheap.

Ravi

New York Times

Hollywood Worries as Decline Continues
By SHARON WAXMAN

Published: May 10, 2005

LOS ANGELES, May 9 - Now Hollywood is starting to get worried.

The poor box-office performance last weekend of the first major film of the summer, "Kingdom of Heaven," released by 20th Century Fox, made for 11 weeks in a row of declining movie attendance and revenue compared with last year, adding up to the longest slump since 2000 and raising an uncomfortable question: Are people turning away from lackluster movies, or turning their backs on the whole business of going to theaters?
   
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The historical epic about the Crusades, which stars Orlando Bloom and was directed by Ridley Scott, took in just $20 million at the domestic box office, a puny opening for a film that cost about $130 million to make and was supported by a major marketing push. The film was helped by a stronger performance abroad, where it took in $56 million in 93 territories.

To be sure, "Kingdom of Heaven" is not the first swords-and-sandals epic to miss the mark with American audiences; neither "Alexander" nor "King Arthur" nor "Troy" was embraced by audiences in this country last year. Analysts said that the "Crusader" movie's R rating contributed to its weak opening, along with reviews that declared Mr. Bloom's performance inadequate.

The weekend's top 12 films took in $77 million, the worst result for early May in at least five years, according to Exhibitor Relations, a company that tracks box-office results. Box-office revenue is down almost 6 percent compared with last year's, while attendance is down about 8 percent, Exhibitor Relations reported.

Since 2002, attendance is down about 10 percent for the comparable period, to about 433.7 admissions from about 485 million. The decline has provoked speculation that a rising DVD market and the advent of more elaborate home entertainment centers, along with the shrinking window of time between a theatrical release and the appearance of the DVD, is causing moviegoers to stay home and wait for discs.

"It does take more to get people out of the easy chair and to the theater; movies have to be so much more compelling," said the president of Exhibitor Relations, Paul Dergarabedian. "DVD's and home theater create more of an anchor to keep people at home. There's a little bit of that going on, and when there's more competition for eyeballs, it's a lot more of a challenge."

Still, some of Hollywood's most seasoned executives insist that this year's problem is a simpler one: The movies have not been good enough. Usually, they said, a sleeper hit comes along in late winter or early spring to wake up the box office, like last year's "Mean Girls" or "Starsky & Hutch" - or the crucifixion blockbuster "The Passion of the Christ."

"Nothing has turned on the audience yet," said Tom Sherak, a partner in Revolution Studios. "It's happened many times before, where the movies come out without great word of mouth. What's happening is the same people who usually come that first weekend have been coming, but they seem to go away quickly because the movies are not generating a broader audience."

Others blamed last weekend's raft of R-rated films, which cut out a major segment of the audience, for the continuing drop. Warner Brothers' "House of Wax," which also opened last weekend, was rated R.

"R-rated pictures aren't working in this marketplace like they used to," said John Fithian, president of the National Association of Theater Owners. "They still seem to work overseas, but they're not as easy to sell in the U.S. Parents are more concerned. We're enforcing the ratings really hard. Anytime you have an opening weekend with all the opening movies rated R, you don't have the same demographic potential as you do otherwise."

In the case of "Kingdom of Heaven," Fox labored to make a film about religious war that would offend neither Christians nor Muslims and trimmed some of Mr. Scott's more violent scenes, said a person who worked on the film and spoke on condition of anonymity to protect relations at the studio. But because the subject matter was religious war and not, as with "The Passion," resurrection, the studio could not count on a big Christian turnout, the person said. A spokesman for Fox said the film was actively marketed to Christians.

Mr. Sherak and others predicted a change once theaters carry a movie that people are excited to see. "The marketplace is obviously in a malaise, and it's going to take movies like 'Star Wars' to get us out of it," Mr. Dergarabedian said, referring to the highly anticipated final installment of the series "Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith," which opens on May 19.

Mr. Fithian, whose member companies have the most to lose from the rise of home viewing, did not agree that the current drop reflected a fundamental shift.

"We are obviously not happy with the 11-week rut that we've been in, but we don't view it as a long-term structural problem," he said. The long-term trends are still positive, he added, referring to an increase in theatrical admissions in the past three decades. "The overall admission trend is that it's growing faster than the population," he continued. "I caution people not to jump to - 'DVD's are killing theaters.' If you look at the numbers, it's not happening," he said.

Mr. Sherak agreed, saying the movie business is cyclical. "I have 35 years of history to prove it," he said. "If attendance drops, it'll drop 2 to 3 percent over all. If it goes up, it goes up 2 to 3 percent. If at the end of the year attendance is off 9 percent, then you have a problem. But right now, it's about the movies."

modage

Quote from: Ravior the crucifixion blockbuster "The Passion of the Christ."
perhaps my favorite genre.  so few films, though.
Christopher Nolan's directive was clear to everyone in the cast and crew: Use CGI only as a last resort.

MacGuffin

Fonda-Lopez Faceoff Tops at Box Office

LOS ANGELES - Moviegoers rewarded Jane Fonda's return to the big screen by making "Monster-in-Law" the weekend's top movie, though the comedy was short of a monster hit.

The total box office slump continued for a 12th straight week, but the force is expected to return next week when the final chapter in the Star Wars saga — "Star Wars: Episode III — Revenge of the Sith," — hits theaters.

"Monster-in-Law," which pits Jennifer Lopez against Fonda as her villainous prospective mother-in-law, took in $24 million, according to studio estimates Sunday. Fonda's first major film role in 15 years was also Lopez's strongest box office opening performance, ahead of 2002's "Maid in Manhattan," which opened with $18.7 million.

J.Lo versus J.Fo earned $3 million more than another comedic take on familial combat, "Kicking & Screaming," in which Will Ferrell faces off against his father and youth soccer coaching rival Robert Duvall.

The weekend's other major opener, the Jet Li action flick "Unleashed," took in a respectable $10.6 million. Last week's box office champ, the Orlando Bloom Crusades epic "Kingdom of Heaven," slipped to fourth place with $9.6 million, a 51 percent drop from its opening weekend.

The total box office take was down 6.7 percent from the same weekend last year, when "Troy" debuted with $46.8 million, but it was up 21.7 percent from last weekend.

"I'm encouraged by these numbers," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations. "This shows there is an audience out there. As we head into the week of 'Star Wars,' this is definitely a positive-looking marketplace."

Studio executives said they were not worried with the box office results so far. "Star Wars" will be followed by several big films, including the animated "Madagascar" and the Adam Sandler-Chris Rock remake of "The Longest Yard."

"There's nothing wrong with our business that a good movie won't fix," said David Tuckerman, head of distribution for New Line Cinema, which released "Monster-in-Law." "'Star Wars' will jump-start us."

None of the major studios are planning any wide releases next weekend, figuring that any new movie will be buried by the sixth and final episode of George Lucas' influential sci-fi saga.

"Because it's the final installment, it's going to go beyond the typical sci-fi audience. It's a cultural phenomenon. Virtually everyone has a vested interest in this movie," Dergarabedian said.

The only contest will be for second place.

"Hopefully we'll still be a choice for families," said Nikki Rocco, head of distribution for Universal, which released "Kicking & Screaming."


1. "Monster-in-Law," $24 million.
2. "Kicking & Screaming," $21 million.
3. "Unleashed," $10.6 million.
4. "Kingdom of Heaven," $9.6 million.
5. "Crash," $7.2 million.
6. "House of Wax," $6.3 million.
7. "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy," $4.8 million.
8. "The Interpreter," $4.4 million.
9. "XXX: State of the Union," $2.2 million.
10. "Mindhunters," $2 million.
"Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art." - Andy Warhol


Skeleton FilmWorks

w/o horse

You know, I'm proud of America for not making XXX:  State of the Union a box office smash, but I'm dissapointed that more people didn't go see Kingdom of Heaven.
Raven haired Linda and her school mate Linnea are studying after school, when their desires take over and they kiss and strip off their clothes. They take turns fingering and licking one another's trimmed pussies on the desks, then fuck each other to intense orgasms with colorful vibrators.

RegularKarate

Quote from: Losing the Horse:You know, I'm proud of America for not making XXX:  State of the Union a box office smash, but I'm dissapointed that more people didn't go see Kingdom of Heaven.

I'm not proud of them at all... it's because there was almost zero marketing for it... not because they chose not to see it.  

As far as disapointment over Kingdom of Heaven... why?  So we can make more boring to average films?