Box Office Guesstimations

Started by Banky, March 25, 2004, 08:36:12 PM

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Ravi

Quote from: modage on May 07, 2006, 01:01:08 PM
its so crazy when $48 million opening weekend is a flop.

M:I2 opened on a 3-day weekend, which is one factor why it grossed more than M:I3.  I'm shedding no tears for Paramount.  Their "flop" already made about $118 million worldwide.

grand theft sparrow

Quote from: Ravi on May 09, 2006, 12:45:18 AM
Quote from: modage on May 07, 2006, 01:01:08 PM
its so crazy when $48 million opening weekend is a flop.

M:I2 opened on a 3-day weekend, which is one factor why it grossed more than M:I3.

Another factor is that people actually LIKED the previous film in the series when MI2 came out.

modage

looks like this will help with the MI:III flops talk somewhat...

Summer Box Office: No Time for a Cruise
Source: Box Office Mojo, Edward Douglas May 14, 2006

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Monday for the final figures based on actual box office.

Just when it seemed like the box office was picking up, three new releases hit theatres with none of them doing nearly as much business as one might expect based on past performances.

The most disturbing of these is the failure by Wolfgang Petersen's Poseidon, a remake of Irwin Allen's 1972 disaster flick to wrestle the top spot away from Tom Cruise and Mission: Impossible III, which made an estimated $24.5 million in its second weekend, a drop of just under 50% from its summer kick-off last week.

Still, that was enough to keep one Cruise afloat while the other one sank, and Petersen's epic, made for a reported $160 million, grossed just over $20 million in 3,555 theatres, an average of $5,717 per theatre. This amount is roughly half of Petersen's last two big movies, the similarly-themed 2000 blockbuster The Perfect Storm starring Geroge Clooney and 2003's Troy starring Brad Pitt.

While the ship sank, Robin Williams' road trip comedy, RV, continued to hold water, earning approximately $9.5 million in its third weekend, a minor drop of 14% from last week. Directed by Barry Sonnefeld, the PG comedy has grossed $42.8 million to date, and is on its way to making back its $50 million production budget.

Lindsay Lohan's luck may have finally run out, as she joins Hilary Duff and Mandy Moore in the ranks of former teen stars who have not been able to maintain their box office success. Lohan's new romantic comedy Just My Luck, released by 20th Century Fox, debuted at #4 with roughly $5.3 million in its opening weekend.

The ghost movie An American Haunting, starring Sissy Spacek and Donald Sutherland, did decently in its second weekend, dropping down to #5 with $3.7 million and a total of $10.9 million.

Touchstone Pictures gymnastic comedy Stick It and Paul Greengrass' 9/11 drama United 93 continued to go neck and neck, with the latter pulling ahead in their third weekend. United 93 dropped down one notch to #6 with $3.6 million and Stick It went from #4 to #7 with $3.2 million. The former has grossed $25 million compared to the latter's $22 million.

In eighth place, Fox's animated hit Ice Age: The Meltdown continues its run in the Top 10, adding another $2.9 million to bring its total gross to $187.4 million. Its attempts at being the first movie of 2006 to cross the $200 million mark may be thwarted by next week's DreamWorks comedy Over the Hedge.

Rounding out the Top 10 were the movie version of the video game Silent Hill , directed by Christophe Gans, and the New Line/Walden Media teen drama Hoot, both making just over $2 million. Silent Hill has grossed $44.5 million in four weeks.

Barely making it into the Top 12, Touchstone Pictures' soccer drama Goal! The Dream Begins fared poorly in its opening weekend, despite early weekend reports of sold out shows in certain areas. It ended up grossing just $1.8 million in just over 1,000 theatres, which doesn't bode well for the second and third installments of the planned trilogy.

After opening in limited release last week, Terry Zwigoff and Daniel Clowes' Art School Confidential expanded nationwide into 762 theatres, where it earned an estimated $1.2 million. Averaging just $1,500 per theatre may prove that Sony Classics might have expanded the dark comedy too wide too soon.

Miramax Films introduced its own family comedy Keeping Up with the Steins, directed by Scott Marshall, son of famed producer/director Gary Marshall (who also stars in the film). It grossed $621 thousand in 138 theatres.

After a stronger summer debut than last year, this weekend sees a drop of nearly 13% from the same weekend last year where two comedies, Monster-in-Law with Jennifer Lopez and Jane Fonda, and Will Ferrell's Kicking and Screaming, topped the box office. Things should pick up again next week with the anticipated summer films, The Da Vinci Code and Over the Hedge


1  Mission: Impossible III Para  $24,514,000 4,059 $84,365,000 
2  Poseidon WB $20,325,000 3,555 $20,325,000
3  RV Sony $9,500,000 3,536 $42,821,000
4  Just My Luck Fox $5,500,000 2,541 $5,500,000
5  An American Haunting Freestyle  $3,689,000 1,703 $10,938,000 
6  United 93  Univ $3,583,000 1,871 $25,630,000
7  Stick It Touch. $3,239,000 2,009 $22,218,000
8  Ice Age: The Meltdown Fox $2,975,000 1,879 $187,395,000
9  Silent Hill TriStar $2,200,000 1,888 $44,507,000
10  Hoot NL $2,125,000 3,018  $6,213,000 
11  Scary Movie 4 Dim $2,080,000 1,793 $86,582,000
12  Goal! The Dream Begins Touch $2,003,000  1,007   $2,003,000

Christopher Nolan's directive was clear to everyone in the cast and crew: Use CGI only as a last resort.

Kal

BOX OFFICE RESULTS FOR MAY 19-21

Amidst a swirl of controversy and middling reviews, The Da Vinci Code rose above the fracas to open with $77 million -- a figure far above Sony's expectations of $60 mil. While it didn't crack the top ten of weekend openings (it ranked 13th), Da Vinci did rate the year's highest opening thus far, and record debuts for director Ron Howard and star Tom Hanks. It also was a happy ending for Sony, which played a tenacious game of chicken with both the media and the public, holding the movie from advance screenings until the last minute, and (theoretically) wringing its hands over the controversy the film had wrought. If you ask us, the studio was lowballing its estimates in the extreme, and even hedged its bets a little by putting the flick on just 3,735 screens, compared to rival Over the Hedge's 4,059. Speaking of Hedge, the DreamWorks animated flick nabbed an impressive $37.2 million, the fifth-highest opening of the year, and a third newcomer, See No Evil, faltered in sixth with just $4.35. The Da Vinci/Hedge onslaught insured that all holdovers would drop precariously, with slides ranging from 40% (Just My Luck) to 60% (United 93). Also of note, Mission: Impossible III, falling to third, finally broke the $100 million mark in its third weekend. Interestingly, the box office was down almost 3% from this time last year -- but then again, the previous May brought us the long-long-long anticipated Star Wars, Episode III: Revenge of the Sith.
Up next week: It's Mutant -- er, Memorial! -- Day weekend as everybody shoves aside for X-Men: The Last Stand and waits to see what director Brett Ratner makes of the lucrative franchise.

Sunday estimates for the weekend box office of May 19-21:


The Da Vinci Code ($77M)
Over the Hedge ($37.2M)
Mission: Impossible III ($11M)
Poseidon ($9.2M)
R.V. ($5.1M)
See No Evil ($4.35M)
Just My Luck ($3.38M)
An American Haunting ($1.66M)
United 93 ($1.4M)
Akeelah and the Bee ($1M)

polkablues

We should get a pool going for Da Vinci Code second-week-dropoff.

I'm down for 65%.
My house, my rules, my coffee

Kal

No way. Remember its Memorial Weekend. And now that the blockbuster audience saw it opening weekend (and they are all going to see XMEN 3) there is still a large group of people left that are waiting to see Da Vinci.

MacGuffin

"Da Vinci," starring Tom Hanks, was the second-highest grossing film of the four-day weekend with $43 million, down 56 percent from last week's impressive opening weekend.
"Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art." - Andy Warhol


Skeleton FilmWorks

©brad


polkablues

Quote from: ©brad on May 30, 2006, 05:15:54 PM
Quote from: polkablues on May 21, 2006, 05:27:39 PMI'm down for 65%.

damn, you were close!

If it hadn't been a four-day weekend I might have nailed it.
My house, my rules, my coffee

MacGuffin

'Pirates' Loots Box Office, Grosses $258M

"Pirates of the Caribbean" is looking more like "Treasure Island." Already a record-shattering blockbuster, Johnny Depp's sequel "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" dug up $62.2 million in its second weekend, raising its 10-day total to $258.2 million, according to studio estimates Sunday.

The movie has quickly become the year's top-grossing film, rocketing past "X-Men: The Last Stand," which has taken in $232 million in eight weeks. The "Pirates" sequel has grossed an additional $125 million overseas.

"It's really fun when you're riding a comet like this," said Chuck Viane, head of distribution for Disney, which based the "Pirates of the Caribbean" movies on its theme park attraction. "This thing is just unbelievable. It creates its own wake."

Sony's "Little Man," the Wayans brothers' slapstick farce about a pint-size thief masquerading as a baby, opened as the No. 2 movie with $21.7 million. The tale stars Shawn and Marlon Wayans, who co-wrote it with brother Keenen Ivory Wayans, the director.

Universal's comedy "You, Me and Dupree," starring Owen Wilson as a houseguest causing chaos for a buddy and his new bride (Matt Dillon and Kate Hudson), debuted at No. 3 with $21.3 million.

Hollywood's business dipped for the first time in two months. After eight straight weekends of rising revenues, overall receipts totaled $156 million, down 5 percent from the same weekend last year, when Depp also was at the top of the box office with "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory."

Still, the second weekend gross for "Dead Man's Chest" topped the debut of "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory," which opened with $56.2 million. "Dead Man's Chest" had the third-best second weekend ever, behind "Shrek 2" ($72.2 million) and "Spider-Man" ($71.4 million).

By next weekend, "Dead Man's Chest" should climb past the $305 million domestic total rung up by its predecessor, 2003's "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl," Disney's Viane said.

"Dead Man's Chest" debuted with $135.6 million over the opening weekend, beating the previous record of $114.8 million set by "Spider-Man" in 2002.

Ending with a cliffhanger, "Dead Man's Chest" will be closely followed by a third "Pirates" movie due out next May, with Orlando Bloom, Keira Knightley and other co-stars on a voyage to rescue Depp's rakish pirate Capt. Jack Sparrow.

"Huge expectations. 'Pirates 2' is maybe the toughest act in box-office history to follow," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations. "'Pirates 3' is the definition of a predestined blockbuster."

After a strong start in narrow release the previous weekend, Warner Independent's sci-fi drug-addiction tale "A Scanner Darkly" expanded to more theaters and broke into the top 10 with $1.2 million. The movie, featuring Keanu Reeves, Winona Ryder and Robert Downey Jr., was shot in live action then painted over with digital animation. 

1. "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," $62.2 million.
2. "Little Man," $21.7 million.
3. "You, Me and Dupree," $21.3 million.
4. "Superman Returns," $11.6 million.
5. "The Devil Wears Prada," $10.45 million.
6. "Cars," $7.5 million.
7. "Click," $7 million.
8. "The Lake House," $1.6 million.
9. "Nacho Libre," $1.5 million.
10. "A Scanner Darkly," $1.2 million.
"Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art." - Andy Warhol


Skeleton FilmWorks

modage

'Pirates' rules at box office, as 'Lady' flops

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - The "Pirates of the Caribbean" sequel logged a third weekend as the most popular movie in North America, while the latest films from directors M. Night Shyamalan and Ivan Reitman both bombed, according to studio estimates issued on Sunday.

Shyamalan's mystical fantasy "Lady in the Water" opened at No. 3 with $18.2 million, amid a critical pasting that got personal at times. The New York Post described Shyamalan as "a crackpot with a messianic delusions."

His last movie, "The Village," opened to $50 million in 2004 and stalled at $114 million -- half of what 2002's "Signs" finished up with. Shyamalan's 1999 breakthrough, "The Sixth Sense," earned $293.5 million.

The new movie was distributed by Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros. Pictures, which said it had hoped for an opening in the mid-$20 million range. It cost in the mid-$50 million range to make.

Reitman's romantic comedy "My Super Ex-Girlfriend," which received only marginally better reviews, opened at No. 7 with $8.7 million. The Uma Thurman vehicle marked Reitman's first directing effort since the 2001 flop "Evolution."

"Girlfriend" was distributed by News Corp.'s 20th Century Fox, which had hoped for an opening in the mid-teens.

Walt Disney Co.'s "Pirates," meanwhile, was No. 1 with $35.0 million, as its total rose to $321.7 million after three weekends. It set a new speed record hitting $300 million, taking 16 days -- one day faster than last year's "Star Wars: Episode III -- Revenge of the Sith."
Christopher Nolan's directive was clear to everyone in the cast and crew: Use CGI only as a last resort.

MacGuffin

'Miami Vice' Takes $25.2M, Sinks 'Pirates'

The "Miami Vice" speedboat overtook the "Pirates of the Caribbean" juggernaut to capture the top spot at the weekend box office.

The film, which pairs Colin Farrell and Jamie Foxx as the iconic TV characters Sonny Crockett and Ricardo Tubbs, took in $25.2 million, compared to $20.5 million for "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," according to studio estimates Sunday.

"It's nice to be number one," said Nikki Rocco, president of distribution at Universal Pictures.

The gritty, dark action film was directed by Michael Mann, who created the 1980s TV show. The movie was especially attractive to older audiences, with 62 percent of the audience over 30, according to the studio's exit polling.

The audience was pretty evenly split between men and women, the polling showed.

"It's what our expectations were," Rocco said. "We tried to do something different. There has been a lot of criticism regarding unoriginal product. We took a TV series and made it very different."

The news was not necessarily bad for The Walt Disney Co., which produced "Pirates."

In its third week, "Pirates" has earned $358.4 million to become the highest grossing film in Disney's history, passing the $339.7 million earned by the Pixar Animation Studios film "Finding Nemo."

"After posting the biggest opening weekend of all time, it is living up to the promise created that opening weekend," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations.

"Pirates" is on track to break the $400 million mark in the coming weeks, Dergarabedian said.

The Pixar film "Cars" has also raked in $234.6 million to date. And while the film is no longer in the top 10 at the box office, its cumulative gross makes it the second highest grossing film of the year, giving Disney the top two spots so far.

"It's a very happy weekend," said Chuck Viane, Disney's head of distribution.

The teen flick "John Tucker Must Die" from 20th Century Fox debuted in third place with a respectable $14 million.

The film, with a budget of about $18 million, attracted a predominantly young female audience with its story of four high school girls who seek revenge against an unfaithful boyfriend.

"The Ant Bully," an animated film from Warner Bros., opened with a mere $8.1 million.

The film featured the voice talents of Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts and Nicolas Cage and was produced by Tom Hanks. But it just couldn't compete against a crowded field of family pictures.

"It's much less than what we had wanted," said Jeff Goldstein, general sales manager at Warner Bros. "The marketplace is crowded. The kids have been bombarded."

The independent film "Little Miss Sunshine" opened strongly in limited release.

The quirky film starring Greg Kinnear and Steve Carell, took in $356,863 in only seven theaters in New York and Los Angeles for a per screen average of $50,980.

Overall, box office revenue was up 6.3 percent and attendance was up 3 percent.

1. "Miami Vice," $25.2 million.
2. "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," $20.5 million.
3. "John Tucker Must Die," $14 million.
4. "Monster House," $11.5 million.
5. "The Ant Bully," $8.2 million.
6. "Lady in the Water," $7 million.
7. "You, Me and Dupree," $7 million
8. "Little Man," $5.1 million.
9. "The Devil Wears Prada," $4.8 million.
10. "Clerks II," $3.9 million.
"Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art." - Andy Warhol


Skeleton FilmWorks

modage

Quote from: MacGuffin on July 30, 2006, 02:45:03 PM
"The Ant Bully," an animated film from Warner Bros., opened with a mere $8.1 million.

The film featured the voice talents of Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts and Nicolas Cage and was produced by Tom Hanks. But it just couldn't compete against a crowded field of family pictures.

"It's much less than what we had wanted," said Jeff Goldstein, general sales manager at Warner Bros. "The marketplace is crowded. The kids have been bombarded."
um, WB, i'd never even HEARD of this movie until a month ago.  and i visit xixax EVERY DAY!  so you really have no one to blame but yourselves.
Christopher Nolan's directive was clear to everyone in the cast and crew: Use CGI only as a last resort.

MacGuffin

'Talladega' Leads Box Office Pack Again

The Will Ferrell comedy "Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby" raced ahead of the competition to remain the box office champ for a second weekend with $23 million in ticket sales, according to studio estimates released Sunday.

Last week's news of another terror plot against airliners apparently did not dampen audience appetite for Oliver Stone's "World Trade Center." The Paramount Pictures release beat expectations by earning $19 million over the weekend to place it third at the weekend box office.

The shocker of the weekend was the high-school dance film "Step Up" from The Walt Disney Co., which placed second with a box office take of $21 million.

"It stepped up out of nowhere and surprised everyone," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box office tracker Exhibitor Relations. "It was totally unexpected."

Disney flooded the Internet and music television networks with dance videos from the film, a strategy that broadened the audience from the target female teen demographic. While 70 percent of the audience was female, about one-quarter was in the 18-24 age range, according to exit polling.

The performance of the top 12 films was up 6.35 percent from the same weekend last year, making it the fourth weekend in a row that the box office has outpaced last year's levels.

Diversity played a big role in generating attendance, analysts said.

"There is so much variety. You pick a genre and you can find a movie," Dergarabedian said.

"World Trade Center" turned in the best weekend debut ever for director Stone, whose previous controversial films such as "JFK and "Nixon" made many wonder how he would portray events in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The film has earned $26.8 million since it opened nationwide Wednesday.

News of a foiled terrorist plot allegedly targeting planes heading to the United States had prompted speculation that moviegoers might shun the film, recounting efforts to rescue two police officers caught under the rubble of the Twin Towers.

"We really don't know the answer" to whether current events affected attendance, said Jim Tharp, president of distribution at Paramount. "Word of mouth got out very quickly and impacted the weekend in a positive manner."

"World Trade Center" is the second film this year to revisit 9/11. April's "United 93" from Universal opened in far fewer theaters and brought in $11.5 million in its opening weekend.

In its third week, the independent film "Little Miss Sunshine" continued its impressive run.

The film, released by Fox Searchlight, brought in an average of $16,993 per screen in 29 cities for a total of $2.6 million over the weekend. It is set for wider release at the end of the month.

1. "Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby," $23 million.
2. "Step Up," $21 million.
3. "World Trade Center," $19 million.
4. "Barnyard," 10.1 million.
5. "Pulse," $8.5 million.
6. "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," 7.2 million.
7. "Zoom," 4.6 million.
8. "The Descent," $4.6 million.
9. "Miami Vice," $4.5 million.
10. "Monster House," $3.3 million.
"Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art." - Andy Warhol


Skeleton FilmWorks

polkablues

Quote from: MacGuffin on August 13, 2006, 03:39:06 PM
The shocker of the weekend was the high-school dance film "Step Up" from The Walt Disney Co., which placed second with a box office take of $21 million.

...70 percent of the audience was female

And the other thirty percent was equal parts bored teenage boyfriends and middle-aged perverts.
My house, my rules, my coffee