Box Office Guesstimations

Started by Banky, March 25, 2004, 08:36:12 PM

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Kal

Yeah but imagine that 100 million does not include marketing... so no they wont recoup the money... same as The Island... big losses for the studio

Box Office Analysis
Previous issue
Thanks to two pairs of good old boys -- that would be Bo and Luke Duke and Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn -- the box office was up again after two down weeks in a row. As expected, the big-screen version of The Dukes of Hazzard took the top slot, though its $30.6 million was slightly less than expected, and with that take the movie should do standard August business (ie, above $50 mil but nowhere near $100 mil). However, it was Wedding Crashers, aka the comedy that wouldn't quit, that performed most impressively, sliding only 18% for $16.5 million and $144 million after four weeks.
Overall, the box office was up almost five percent from this time last year (though down over 8% from last weekend -- shows you how much of a yawner August is), and accordingly most holdovers performed pretty well, aside from those big action movies. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory held on for third with $10.6 million, and two of last week's newbies, Sky High and Must Love Dogs, took dips in the 40% range. Stealth, however, lived up to its name by sliding over 50% for $5.8 million, and The Island tumbled down to tenth with just $3.1 million. Maybe if both those movies had featured penguins they might stand a chance, as docu-hit March of the Penguins added over 1000 screens and saw its fortunes rise 72% for $6.9 million and sixth place; its cumulative now stands at a very cool $26.2 million.

Ravi

I know I shouldn't be surprised, but it always disappoints me when people willingly gobble up shit like The Dukes of Hazzard.  Reminds me of Salo for some reason.

MacGuffin

'Virgin' Wins Box Office With $20.6M

Steve Carell scored in his maiden voyage as a leading man, with his comedy "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" taking in $20.6 million to debut at the top of the box office.

Opening in second place was Wes Craven's airplane thriller "Red Eye," which raked in $16.5 million in its first weekend, according to studio estimates Sunday.

The two new movies bumped the previous weekend's top flick, "Four Brothers," to third place with $13 million. "Four Brothers" lifted its 10-day total to $43.6 million.

The weekend's other wide releases tanked. Disney's "Valiant," an animated tale about the exploits of heroic homing pigeons during World War II, came in at No. 7 with $6.1 million.

"Supercross: The Movie," a motorcycle-racing flick so bad the studio did not screen it in advance for critics, opened well out of the top 10 with $1.3 million.

The overall box office was down slightly, with the top 12 movies grossing $98.8 million, off 3 percent from the same weekend last year. Hollywood receipts have sagged for most of the year, running about 7 percent behind 2004's revenues.

"The 40-Year-Old Virgin," which Carell co-wrote, casts him as a middle-aged electronics-store clerk whose co-workers discover he's never had sex and set out to find him an easy woman, only to see him begin dating a single mom (Catherine Keener) with a mutual a no-sex policy.

"Forty-year-old virgins everywhere are celebrating the No. 1 opening of their hero," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations.

Distributor Universal hopes "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" can muster the same good word of mouth that made another R-rated sex romp, "Wedding Crashers," one of summer's biggest successes.

"Our racy little R-rated comedies are making a hit this year," said Nikki Rocco, head of distribution for Universal.

Critics warmly embraced "The 40-Year-Old Virgin," a sign the movie could get talked up enough by audiences to hold up well in subsequent weekends.

"This is a movie that's a conversation piece. People are going to be telling other people, quoting different lines and scenes," Dergarabedian said. "That's what's going to sustain it in the marketplace."

"Red Eye" stars Rachel McAdams as a woman on an overnight flight who's forced to assist in an assassination plot by her seat mate (Cillian Murphy), a man threatening to have her father killed unless she complies.

An understated departure for horror master Craven ("A Nightmare on Elm Street" the "Scream" movies), "Red Eye" also received high marks from critics.

"What's most impressive to me was Wes' successful transition from horror films to the suspense genre," said Jim Tharp, head of distribution for DreamWorks, which released "Red Eye."


1. "The 40-Year-Old Virgin," $20.6 million.
2. "Red Eye," $16.5 million.
3. "Four Brothers," $13 million.
4. "Wedding Crashers," $8.3 million.
5. "The Skeleton Key," $7.4 million.
6. "March of the Penguins," $6.7 million.
7. "Valiant," $6.1 million.
8. "Dukes of Hazzard," $5.7 million.
9. "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory," $4.5 million.
10. "Sky High," $4 million.
"Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art." - Andy Warhol


Skeleton FilmWorks

modage

Quote from: macage'Virgin' Wins Box Office With $20.6M
Steve Carell scored in his maiden voyage as a leading man, with his comedy "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" taking in $20.6 million to debut at the top of the box office
good for apatow.   :bravo:
Christopher Nolan's directive was clear to everyone in the cast and crew: Use CGI only as a last resort.

killafilm

And when you add this to those numbers...

QuoteBest Reviewed Films of the Year with Wide Release Debuts
-------------------------------------------------------------
(Does not include films with platform releases)

1. The 40-Year Old Virgin - 90%, 102 Reviews
2. Cinderella Man - 84%, 171 Reviews
3. Batman Begins - 83%, 217 Reviews
4. Red Eye - 83%, 101 Reviews
5. Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith - 82%, 229 Reviews
6. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory - 82%, 185 Reviews
7. The Sisterhood of Traveling Pants - 82%, 105 Reviews
8. Hustle & Flow - 81%, 121 Reviews
9. Sin City - 78%, 212 Reviews
10. Crash - 77%, 154 Reviews
11. Pooh's Heffalump Movie - 76%, 68 Reviews
12. Wedding Crashers - 74%, 151 Reviews
13. George A. Romero's Land of the Dead - 73%, 146 Reviews
14. War of the Worlds - 72%, 218 Reviews
15. Hitch - 68%, 168 Reviews
16. Sky High - 67%, 103 Reviews
17. Unleashed - 66%, 109 Reviews
18. Coach Carter - 65%, 122 Reviews
19. Robots - 63%, 164 Reviews
20. Fever Pitch - 63%, 163 Reviews"


:yabbse-thumbup:  :yabbse-thumbup:  :yabbse-thumbup:

MacGuffin

'40-Year-Old Virgin' Retains No. 1 Spot

Steve Carell's second time at the top of the box office was almost as good as the first. "The 40-Year-Old Virgin," starring Carell as a middle-aged man who has never had sex, remained the No. 1 movie with $16.4 million, a strong hold from its opening weekend, according to studio estimates Sunday.

Terry Gilliam's "The Brothers Grimm," a fantasy starring Matt Damon and Heath Ledger as the 19th century fairy-tale siblings, debuted in second place with $15.1 million.

"The Cave," an underground monster movie featuring Morris Chestnut, Piper Perabo and Cole Hauser, opened weakly at No. 6 with $6.2 million.

The weekend's other new wide release the romance "Undiscovered," featuring Ashlee Simpson and Pell James as gal pals who fabricate media buzz to help a friend's music career flopped with just $690,000, finishing far out of the top 10.

A movie slump continued, with the top-12 films taking in $82.8 million, down 2.5 percent from the same weekend last year.

Hollywood is having its worst year since the late 1990s, with summer attendance expected to come in 12 percent behind last year, according to box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations.

There have been bright spots amid the slump, notably the racy R-rated comedies "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" and "Wedding Crashers," which are holding well on the strength of good reviews and word of mouth.

"Wedding Crashers," starring Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn as buddies who intrude on strangers' nuptials to pick up women, remained the No. 5 film with $6.25 million, lifting its seven-week total to $187.7 million.

The release of "The Brothers Grimm" was delayed for a year as Gilliam feuded over the final version with brothers Harvey and Bob Weinstein, the heads of Miramax Films, whose Dimension banner released the movie.

"The Brothers Grimm" is among a rush of long-delayed Miramax movies now being released as the Weinsteins prepare to depart Disney-owned Miramax for a new film company they have formed.

For Gilliam ("The Fisher King" "Twelve Monkeys"), it was his first film since 1998's "Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas." "Brothers Grimm" got mixed reviews at best, though.

"It's a respectable opening," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations. "You can't underestimate the following that Terry Gilliam has."


1. "The 40-Year-Old Virgin," $16.4 million.
2. "The Brothers Grimm," $15.1 million.
3. "Red Eye," $10.4 million.
4. "Four Brothers," $7.8 million.
5. "Wedding Crashers," $6.25 million.
6. "The Cave," $6.2 million.
7. "March of the Penguins," $4.6 million.
8. "The Skeleton Key," $4.4 million.
9. "Valiant," $3.35 million.
10. "The Dukes of Hazzard," $3.05 million.
"Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art." - Andy Warhol


Skeleton FilmWorks

Ravi

Quote from: name deleted by modage
The weekend's other new wide release the romance "Undiscovered," featuring Ashlee Simpson and Pell James as gal pals who fabricate media buzz to help a friend's music career flopped with just $690,000, finishing far out of the top 10.

I guess Ashlee will be locked up in the basement again.  Or fed to Jessica for sustenance.

NEON MERCURY



"hey guys, did any of ya'll see my movie..[tee-hee]"

Reinhold

theonion.com

Citing Slow Summer Box Office, Hollywood Calls It Quits
October 5, 2005 | Issue 41•40

BURBANK, CA—Universal Studios joined DreamWorks SKG, Sony Pictures, Warner Bros., Paramount, and Fox Monday, when CEO Ron Meyer announced that the company is shutting down operations and ceasing all film production, effective immediately.

"In their hearts, every studio chair would like to be a patron of the arts," said a candid and reflective Meyer, speaking from his New York office on the 69th floor of Manhattan's Rockefeller Plaza. "But this is a business, not an artists' charity ward."

According to Hollywood insiders, summer 2005 dealt the death blow to an already ailing industry. With box-office receipts 9 percent lower than those of 2004, the few successes, such as The 40-Year-Old Virgin and War Of The Worlds, could not carry the industry.

Regarding the decision to liquidate Paramount, Viacom CEO Sumner Redstone said, "It was a simple choice: cling to an outdated business model or cut the pictures loose."

To better protect their stockholders' interests, Hollywood will be shifting its focus to safer, more reliable profit models, including real estate, life insurance, and the sale of hygiene products.

Said Meyer: "The mortuary industry also seems like a good bet. No matter what happens in the economy, there's always a market for funeral homes. People are always dying. That doesn't go unpredictably out of fashion with the public's taste, like, say, historical costume epics or Russell Crowe."

Monday, construction crews quietly dismantled the storied Hollywood Walk of Fame.

"This is a real shame," said foreman Kevin McKnight, directing members of his crew to pry the brass stars from Hollywood Boulevard and transfer them to a nearby freight crate destined for a Japanese smelting plant. "I love movies. My whole family does. All my life, I loved movies."

With each studio's decision to cease operations, dozens of films in various stages of production will quietly die, some going to DVD, others disappearing entirely, amounting to little more than tax write-offs. Assets are being sold for pennies on the dollar, and hastily liquidated prop houses and set rooms have flooded an already deluged eBay resale market. An original Indiana Jones flight jacket was sold Tuesday for $1.49 plus shipping.

Figures from the California Labor Department reflect the industry's sudden collapse. As of Tuesday, some 700 directors, 15,000 producers, 2,900 entertainment lawyers, 14,000 writers, and 72,000 actors—not to mention countless gaffers, tour guides, production designers, publicists, souvenir sellers, and personal assistants—were reportedly out of work.

"I feel a little betrayed," said Stealth director Rob Cohen. "After the summer season ended, I had hoped that people would start coming back to theaters, or maybe the industry would cook up some new concepts."

Cohen added: "Now it looks like I'll have to go back to directing TV ads."

"I don't know how my family will get by without a steady source of income," said 43-year-old Los Angeles resident Kirk Ferguson, a third-generation set carpenter. "Making facades that get blown up is all I know."

The absence of films is creating a ripple effect far beyond Southern California. Movie ushering has become an obsolete trade overnight, as first-run theaters shut down, convert to loft apartment space, and force hundreds of thousands of adolescents into the already crowded lawn-mowing and car-washing professions.

"A lot of movie history was made on the Warner Bros. lot, but not a lot of money," Warner Bros. CEO Barry Meyer said. "We've been sitting on valuable land at the height of a booming real-estate market. We could have sold it off months ago instead of making Must Love Dogs. We acted irresponsibly, and for this I apologize to our stockholders."

With little hope of getting a job in Hollywood, ex-film-industry employees are understandably reacting with anger and despair. Some, however, are more philosophical.

"I can always go back to Wisconsin and tend bar," actor Mark Ruffalo said. "Maybe do some community theater. The folks you should really feel sorry for are Jack Nicholson and Tom Cruise. They're fucking nuts. I have no idea what they'll do without Hollywood."

The void is not likely to remain for long, with heavy hitters such as Bollywood producer Aamir Khan ready to swoop in.

"We are very excited to be entering the American entertainment market," Khan said. "Our first release, timed to coincide with the American holiday entertainment rush, is a remake of Mahabharata, a five-hour retelling of the ancient Hindu epic, filled with thrilling synchronized dance numbers and much romance."
Quote from: Pas Rap on April 23, 2010, 07:29:06 AM
Obviously what you are doing right now is called (in my upcoming book of psychology at least) validation. I think it's a normal thing to do. People will reply, say anything, and then you're gonna do what you were subconsciently thinking of doing all along.

matt35mm

Wallace & Gromit is #1 = YAY!

LOS ANGELES - Clay paid off at the box office for "Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit." The clay-animated family film debuted as the top weekend movie with $16.1 million.

Distributor DreamWorks is counting on the film's stellar reviews and strong word of mouth to give "Wallace & Gromit" a long run in theaters. Though popular in the United States through the TV shorts, the characters have been far better known in their native Britain.

"In the U.S., they weren't as well-known as people might imagine," said Jim Tharp, head of distribution for DreamWorks. "I think they certainly will be after this weekend."

1. "Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit," $16.1 million.

2. "Flightplan," $10.8 million.

3. "In Her Shoes," $10 million.

4. "Two for the Money," $8.4 million.

5. "The Gospel," $8 million.

6. "Tim Burton's Corpse Bride," $6.5 million.

7. "Waiting," $5.7 million.

8. "A History of Violence," $5.1 million.

9. "Serenity," $4.9 million.

10. "Into the Blue," $4.8 million.

Ravi

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051023/ap_en_mo/box_office

'Doom' No. 1 in Another Slow Movie Weekend
By DAVID GERMAIN, AP Movie Writer Sun Oct 23, 6:35 PM ET


LOS ANGELES - The Rock did not meet his doom at the box office, but his latest action flick came in with a light pop instead of a bang during another slow weekend at movie theaters.

"Doom," adapted from the sci-fi video game, debuted as the top movie with a modest $15.4 million, according to studio estimates Sunday. The movie led a lackluster lineup that continued Hollywood's box-office slump, with the top 12 movies taking in $71.3 million, down 27 percent from the same weekend last year.

"Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story," a horse racing family film starring
Kurt Russell and
Dakota Fanning, opened in second place with $9.3 million.

Charlize Theron's blue-collar drama "North Country," based on the real-life story of a woman who led a sexual-discrimination lawsuit against male co-workers at a mining company, premiered a weak No. 5 with $6.5 million.

"Stay," starring Ewan McGregor, Naomi Watts and Ryan Gosling in a thriller about a psychiatrist racing to save a suicidal patient, flopped with a $2.15 million debut.

Films in limited release opened strongly. The romance "Shopgirl," starring
Steve Martin, Claire Danes and Jason Schwartzman in an adaptation of Martin's own novella, debuted in eight theaters with $236,000. The comic crime thriller "Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang," starring Robert Downey Jr. and
Val Kilmer, took in $174,300 in eight theaters.

Both films expand to more theaters over the next couple of weeks.

Hollywood has been in a box-office slide for most of the year, with admissions running about 8 percent below 2004 levels.

Though distributor Universal expects to make its money back on "Doom," the studio had hoped for a bigger opening weekend, said Nikki Rocco, head of distribution.

"I'm very concerned about the marketplace," Rocco said. "There are so many movies out, so much to choose from, yet the marketplace continues to fall, and not just by little amounts."

Other studio executives are sticking to the idea that the industry has simply had a prolonged run of movies that failed to pack in crowds.

"I've been telling people for a long time that I think it's content-driven. I don't think we had a film that jumped out for people this weekend," said Dan Fellman, head of distribution for Warner Bros., which released "North Country."

Warner has a certain blockbuster coming in mid-November with "
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire." Other big films scheduled through the holidays include "King Kong," "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" and "The Producers."

October typically is a slow time for movies. Over the same weekend a year ago, though, the box-office shot up on the unexpectedly strong debut of the ghost story "The Grudge," which opened with $39.1 million.

"In all fairness, this was more of a typical late-October weekend, as opposed to a year ago, when `The Grudge' surprised everyone and made this weekend look pale by comparison," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations.

Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Exhibitor Relations Co. Inc. Final figures will be released Monday.

1. "Doom," $15.4 million.

2. "Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story," $9.3 million.

3. "Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit," $8.7 million.

4. "The Fog," $7.3 million.

5. "North Country," $6.5 million.

6. "Elizabethtown," $5.7 million.

7. "Flightplan," $4.7 million.

8. "In Her Shoes," $3.9 million.

9. "A History of Violence," $2.7 million.

10. "Two for the Money," $2.4 million.

MacGuffin

"Saw II" Much for Competition

Saw II promised lots of blood; it delivered lots of bucks.

The grisly horror sequel, in which the determined Jigsaw picks up where he hacked off in Saw, delivered the box office's fourth-biggest October opening ever, per estimates from Exhibitor Relations Co.

Its $30.5 million take was more than enough to top the weekend competition, but not quite enough to shake Hollywood of its fall slump. Overall, the top 12 films combined to gross $86.3 million, down about 6 percent when compared to this time last year.

It was during Halloween weekend 2004 that the original Saw opened with an eye-opening $18.3 million--a quick return and then some on the flick's $1 million or so budget. Production costs on Saw II, starring The More Affordable Wahlberg (aka, Mark's big brother Donnie), remained on the low end, but quadrupled to an estimated $4 million, per IMDb.com.

If Saw II was an amplified version of its forerunner (bigger budget, bigger box office), then The Legend of Zorro is looking like a diminished version of its predecessor.

Seven years after The Mask of Zorro became Catherine Zeta-Jones' first big hit, The Legend of Zorro became just another of 2005's underachievers.

Legend, reuniting Zeta-Jones with Antonio Banderas, bowed in second place with $16.5 million, or $6 million less than Mask made on 1,000 fewer screens several inflationary cycles ago, per the stats at BoxOfficeMojo.com.

The Weather Man, meanwhile, wasn't the worst opening of Nicolas Cage's career, but suffice to say even Captain Corelli's Mandolin saw better weekends. The grownup, character-driven drama of a TV weather forecaster in crisis debuted with a tepid $4.2 million (sixth place).

The weekend's other major new release, the Meryl Streep and Uma Thurman therapy comedy, Prime, didn't rate all that highly with audiences--third place, $6.4 million.

Doom, last weekend's champ, was this weekend's chump. Business plummeted 74 percent, down to $4.1 million ($22.9 million overall) and seventh place.

Falling out of the top 10 were: Elizabethtown (11th place, $2.4 million--$22.7 million overall); In Her Shoes (13th place, $1.8 million--$29.3 million overall); A History of Violence (14th place, $1.4 million--$28.5 million overall); and Two for the Money (weekend box office unknown).

The Passenger, a reissue of the 1975 Michelangelo Antonioni drama starring Jack Nicholson, was the prize of the art-house circuit, scoring $27,649 in two theaters, for a weekend-best screen average of $13,825.


1. Saw II, $30.5 million
2. The Legend of Zorro, $16.5 million
3. Prime, $6.4 million
4. Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story, $6.3 million
5. Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, $4.4 million
6. The Weather Man, $4.2 million
7. Doom, $4.1 million
8. North Country, $3.7 million
9. The Fog, $3.3 million
10. Flightplan, $2.6 million
"Don't think about making art, just get it done. Let everyone else decide if it's good or bad, whether they love it or hate it. While they are deciding, make even more art." - Andy Warhol


Skeleton FilmWorks

Kal

Not bad at all... exceded all expectations... wasnt The Incredibles, but still good for Disney. I wanted them to do good, or else Steve Jobs would feel even more than he is the master of the universe. He had enough satisfactions this year!

Name, Dist, Weekend, Theatre Count, Avg, Total Box Office, Budget, Weeks

1 Chicken Little BV $40,086,000 - 3,654 - $10,970 $40,086,000 $60 1
2 Jarhead Uni. $28,751,000 - 2,411 - $11,924 $28,751,000 $72 1
3 Saw II Lions $17,200,000 -45.8% 2,949 - $5,832 $60,468,000 $4 2
4 The Legend of Zorro Sony $10,000,000 -38.8% 3,520 - $2,840 $30,288,000 $75 2
5 Prime Uni. $5,263,000 -15.4% 1,837 +10 $2,864 $13,456,000 $22 2
6 Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story DW $4,800,000 -21.7% 2,617 +126 $1,834 $23,827,000 $32 3
7 Good Night, and Good Luck. WIP $3,100,000 +54.7% 657 +385 $4,718 $11,007,000 $7 5
8 The Weather Man Par. $2,935,000 -30.9% 1,510 - $1,943 $8,704,000 $22 2
9 Shopgirl BV $2,524,000 +444.5% 493 +451 $5,119 $3,486,000 - 3
10 Flightplan BV $2,330,000 -14.6% 1,445 -321 $1,612 $84,452,000 - 7

modage

well this just puts another nail in the coffin of traditionally animated films for a while. 

thats a pretty huge opening for Jarhead too.
Christopher Nolan's directive was clear to everyone in the cast and crew: Use CGI only as a last resort.

Kal

Yeah... I'm happy for Jarhead cause a lot of people was excited to see it but the reviews tried to kill it... still did more than double expectations, so it was great.

Im gonna go see it tonight