Box Office Guesstimations

[Kal]

HARRY POTTER

Harry Potter burned up the box office with a monstrous $101.4 million take -- the fourth-highest opening of all time. Not only that, it was by far the best opening for a Potter movie ever, as the first three films all had three-day grosses in the $88-$93 million range, proving that a 2 1/2-hour runtime and PG-13 rating weren't detriments in any way; guess the Potter franchise won't be slowing down anytime soon! In second, as expected, was Walk the Line, which did solid business with $22.4 million, just a couple mil above last year's fave music biopic, Ray. The rest of the top ten was not so pretty, as the opening of Goblet of Fire meant all the holdovers took it in the shorts, dropping anywhere from 47% (Derailed) to 64% (Get Rich or Die Tryin'). The lone bright spot in tenth place was Pride & Prejudice, which slid only 26% and boasted the second-best per-site average in the top ten. Nonetheless, the box office was up, up, up -- 19.5% from last year, and over 53% from last week's lackluster proceedings.

Sunday estimates for the weekend box office of Nov. 18-20:


Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire ($101.4M)
Walk the Line ($22.4M)
Chicken Little ($14.8M)
Derailed ($6.5M)
Zathura ($5.1M)
Jarhead ($4.8M)
Get Rich or Die Tryin' ($4.38M)
Saw II ($3.9M)
The Legend of Zorro ($2.3M)
Pride & Prejudice ($2.1M)

[MacGuffin]

Horror Fans Welcome 'Hostel'

The weekend box office was sheer torture as the bloody "Hostel," a tale of buddies who stumble into a den of violent depravity, debuted at No. 1 with $20.1 million.

Lionsgate's "Hostel" bumped off the previous weekend's No. 1 film, Disney's "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe," which came in second with $15.4 million to lift its domestic total to $247.6 million, according to studio estimates Sunday.

Universal's "King Kong" was third with $12.5 million, raising its domestic total to $192.5 million.

The weekend's only other new wide release, 20th Century Fox's "Grandma's Boy," flopped with just $2.9 million. The comedy from Adam Sandler's production company stars Allen Covert as a video-game tester forced to move in with his grandmother.

After a slump that saw movie attendance fall 7 percent in 2005, Hollywood was off to a good start this year. The top 12 movies grossed $106.7 million, up 9 percent from the same weekend a year ago.

"Hostel" follows two Americans (Jay Hernandez and Derek Richardson) whose European pleasure jaunt turns nightmarish when they end up captives in a chamber of torture after a brothel visit.

"The track record of horror films tells you maybe Hollywood should just release horror movies to be successful. I can't think of a more consistently performing genre at the box office," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations.

Though it was approaching the $200 million mark domestically, "King Kong" continued to perform below industry expectations. Hollywood had pegged the epic remake from "The Lord of the Rings" mastermind Peter Jackson as a potential billion-dollar smash worldwide.

Still, "King Kong" was climbing steadily internationally, its worldwide total hitting $464.5 million. "King Kong" is expected to top out in the $600 million range worldwide.

Expanding to more theaters in anticipation of Academy Awards season, Focus Features' acclaimed "Brokeback Mountain" finished at No. 9 with $5.75 million, raising its total to $22.5 million.

Playing in 484 theaters, up about 200 from the previous weekend, "Brokeback Mountain" averaged a healthy $11,881 a cinema, compared to $9,157 in 2,195 theaters for "Hostel."

"Brokeback Mountain" seems to be dashing speculation that its subject matter a homosexual romance between two old sheepherding pals would turn off audiences outside of urban markets.

"We're very squarely in middle America, all the way to Duluth, Minn., Portland, Maine, El Paso, Tulsa, Wichita. We're in the heartland," said Jack Foley, head of distribution for Focus Features. "I think that's no longer the real issue. The real issue is how much the film is being seen by people all over the country."

"Brokeback Mountain" star Heath Ledger had a second film expanding to wider release, Disney's "Casanova," in which he plays the legendary womanizer. "Casanova" went into 1,004 theaters, up from 37, and took in $4 million for an average of $3,998 a cinema.

Also doing well as it expanded to wider release was DreamWorks' "Match Point," Woody Allen's tale of infidelity that stars Jonathan Rhys Meyers, Scarlett Johannson and Emily Mortimer.

"Match Point" widened to 304 theaters, up from eight the previous weekend, and took in $2.8 million for an average of $9,243 a cinema.

1. "Hostel," $20.1 million.
2. "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe," $15.4 million.
3. "King Kong," $12.5 million.
4. "Fun With Dick and Jane," $12.2 million.
5. "Cheaper by the Dozen 2," $8.3 million.
6. "Munich," $7.5 million.
7. "Memoirs of a Geisha," $6 million.
8. "Rumor Has It," $5.9 million
9. "Brokeback Mountain," $5.75 million.
10. "The Family Stone," $4.6 million.

[matt35mm]

I am so disappointed in America for making When A Stranger Calls the #1 movie with $21.6 million (not to mention Big Mamma's House 2 as #2).

Go home, America.  Just get out of my face.

[Ravi]

You won't be disappointed if you consistently expect the worst of people.

[matt35mm]

I know, I know.  I usually live by that philosophy.

Maybe America's response to Brokeback Mountain fooled me into thinking that it's not totally stupid.  Of course, America has nothing to do with it.  I just felt like making a very broad generalization.  For kicks.

It's just that now all the kids with money are going to the theater again now that the "boring movie season" is over.

[godardian]

My worst-ever box-office champion is Kangaroo Jack. It was at that point that I was like, "This is it. The End of Cinema, and not in the good Weekend way."

[Fernando]

My worst-ever box-office champion is Kangaroo Jack. It was at that point that I was like, "This is it. The End of Cinema, and not in the good Weekend way."

Haha, Deja Vu, you're not the first to complain about it, thanks for bringing it up, just did a search with 'kangaroo jack' and had a blast from the plast.

:sigh: good times...

and for the lazy...link

[MacGuffin]

I am so disappointed in America for making When A Stranger Calls the #1 movie with $21.6 million (not to mention Big Mamma's House 2 as #2).

Go home, America.  Just get out of my face.

Hey, matt, America just got back in your face...

'Madea's Family Reunion' Tops Box-Office

Tyler Perry fans reunited at theaters for another tale of mad black women. "Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion," a comic drama in which writer-director Perry also stars in three roles, debuted as the weekend's No. 1 movie with $30.25 million, according to studio estimates Sunday.

It was a second gold mine for Lionsgate Films, which also released Perry's "Diary of a Mad Black Woman," the movie that opened as No. 1 with $21.9 million on the same weekend last year.

Lionsgate hopes to have a third Perry movie out over the same weekend next year, said Steve Rothenberg, the company's president of distribution.

"It's a time when we can really dominate the box office," Rothenberg said. "If we were out at Christmas, we'd be competing with the big holiday and Oscar films, but late February with Black History Month and less competition is a great time period for us."

This weekend's other new wide releases flopped. The Weinstein Co. animated tale "Doogal," a fairy-tale adventure with a voice cast that includes Whoopi Goldberg, Kylie Minogue and Jimmy Fallon, debuted at No. 8 with $3.6 million.

New Line's crime thriller "Running Scared," starring Paul Walker as a mobster scrambling to recover a gun used in the slaying of a cop, opened at No. 9 with $3.1 million.

Walker also stars in last weekend's No. 1 movie, Disney's dog tale "Eight Below," which slipped to second place with $15.7 million. "Eight Below" grossed $45.1 million in 10 days.

Though "Madea's Family Reunion" opened more strongly than "Diary of a Mad Black Woman," the overall weekend box office declined. The top 12 movies took in $99.8 million, down 4.4 percent from the same weekend last year.

Based on Perry's stage play, "Madea's Family Reunion" depicts a variety of domestic crises as a clan prepares for a reunion. Among the characters Perry plays is the heavyset, pistol-packing Grandma Madea, whom he also played in "Diary of a Mad Black Woman."

The film was shot for just $6 million.

Perry's stories about empowerment of women set among Madea's family have a built-in following among black audiences familiar with his plays and video versions of the tales. Black women 35 and older made up 52 percent of the movie's audience, according to Lionsgate.

"The themes Tyler Perry presents resonate very strongly with the black community," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations. "It reminds me of 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding.' It has elements of comedy and drama and community that just definitely works."

The South African film "Tsotsi," a nominee for best foreign-language film at the Academy Awards, opened strongly in limited release with $78,000 at six theaters, for a healthy $13,000 average.

By comparison, "Madea's Family Reunion" averaged $13,788 in 2,194 theaters, "Doogal" did $1,557 in 2,318 cinemas, and "Running Scared" averaged $1,909 in 1,611 theaters.

1. "Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion," $30.25 million.
2. "Eight Below," $15.7 million.
3. "The Pink Panther" $11.3 million.
4. "Date Movie," $9.2 million.
5. "Curious George," $7 million.
6. "Firewall," $6.3 million.
7. "Final Destination 3," $5.35 million.
8. "Doogal," $3.6 million.
9. "Running Scared," $3.1 million.
10. "Freedomland," $2.9 million.

[hedwig]

1. "Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion," $30.25 million.
2. "Eight Below," $15.7 million.
3. "The Pink Panther" $11.3 million.
4. "Date Movie," $9.2 million.
5. "Curious George," $7 million.
6. "Firewall," $6.3 million.
7. "Final Destination 3," $5.35 million.
8. "Doogal," $3.6 million.
9. "Running Scared," $3.1 million.
10. "Freedomland," $2.9 million.

Hahah, the only movies I want to see are the bottom two.

For the record: Lars Von Trier's Medea > Tyler Perry's Madea. oh shit, take THAT America.

[polkablues]

New Line's crime thriller "Running Scared," starring Paul Walker as a mobster scrambling to recover a gun used in the slaying of a cop, opened at No. 9 with $3.1 million.

Just shows to go you what happens when you don't advertise at all on TV.  There were about ten people, including myself and my brother, seeing this at the 1:30 Saturday afternoon showing I went to.

[Ravi]

Doogal had little advertising, and what little there was showcased the stars more than the movie's characters or story.

[picolas]

i saw the tv spot for Running Scared like 40 times and i only saw one tv spot for Medea. i lost almost a million HSX Dollars on that investment..

[Cecil]

"hey guys, did any of ya'll see my movie..[tee-hee]"

i have seen this, but i will not give my opinion because it is far, faaaar too controversial. the time is not right. at any rate, theres an amazing performance by peter weller at the end that should be seen by everyone.

[MacGuffin]

Hey, matt, America just got back in your face... AGAIN.

'Madea' Earns $13M, Stays Atop Box Office

"Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion," a comic drama from the creator of "Diary of a Mad Black Woman," held off a rush of new releases to maintain the top spot at the weekend box office.

The Lionsgate Films movie raked in $13 million in its second weekend, bringing its gross to $48 million, according to studio estimates Sunday.

It edged out the cop thriller "16 Blocks," which debuted at No. 2 with $11.7 million. The Warner Bros. film stars Bruce Willis as an NYPD detective trying to shuffle a star witness from a precinct lockup to a grand jury session 16 blocks away.

Overall, it was a lackluster weekend performance for Hollywood, where attention was focused on the Academy Awards on Sunday. The top 12 movies took in $83.8 million, down 23 percent from the same weekend last year.

"Not every weekend can be a blockbuster. This weekend definitely was not," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations.

Other new wide releases this weekend had mediocre showings. Screen Gems' sci-fi flick "Ultraviolet," starring Milla Jovovich as exacting revenge on the government after being infected with a blood disease, debuted at No. 4 with $9 million.

The 20th Century Fox teen mermaid tale "Aquamarine" opened at No. 5 with $7.5 million. Focus Features' star-studded comedy "Dave Chappelle's Block Party" came in at No. 7 with $6.5 million.

"Madea's Family Reunion," which was shot for just $6 million, is a comic drama about a slew of domestic hijinks that occur as a family prepares for a reunion. Perry wrote and directed the film and starred in three roles including the overweight, pistol-packing matriarch Madea, whom he also played in last year's "Diary of a Mad Black Woman."

Foreign-language Oscar nominee "Joyeux Noel" opened strongly in limited release, grossing $50,133 in six theaters, for a healthy $8,356 average.

By comparison, "16 Blocks" averaged $4,307 in 2,706 theaters; "Ultraviolet" did $3,518 in 2,558 theaters; "Aquamarine" averaged $2,986 in 2,512 theaters and "Dave Chappelle's Block Party" did $5,430 in 1,200 theaters.

1. "Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion," $13 million.
2. "16 Blocks," $11.7 million.
3. "Eight Below," $10.3 million.
4. "Ultraviolet," $9 million.
5. "Aquamarine," $7.5 million.
6. "The Pink Panther" $7 million.
7. "Dave Chappelle's Block Party," $6.5 million.
8. "Date Movie," $5.1 million.
9. "Curious George," $4.4 million.
10. "Firewall," $3.6 million.

[polkablues]

That sound you just heard was me killing myself.