Box Office Guesstimations

[Kal]

Hawking everything from Happy Meals to PC's paid off for Shrek the Third this weekend -- big time. The ugly green ogre from Far Far Away came pretty close to beating Spider-Man 3's recent record-breaking opening weekend, hauling in $122 million over three days to became the third top opener of all time. The DreamWorks 'toon ranks only behind Spidey's $151 million debut and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, which raked in $135 million during its opening weekend last year. It also bested Shrek 2's previous record ($108 million) for best opening ever for an animated film. Despite the lack of any other major studio releases, Hollywood enjoyed another up weekend, its third in a row, with an 11% boost over the same time last year when The Da Vinci Code topped the charts. Box office holdovers averaged about a 40% drop in sales overall, with Spider-Man 3 sliding from the top spot with $28 million, zombie sequel 28 Weeks Later lumbering into third place with $5.1 million, teen thriller Disturbia holding steady at number four with $3.6 million and Georgia Rule rounding out the top five with $3.49 million. Spider-Man's meager take was enough to bring its total to $281 million and is on target to reach the $300 million domestic mark within the week. That is, unless, Shrek stays strong and early screenings of Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End plunders the webslinger's booty.

Up next week: Three is the magic number as the third installment of Pirates of the Caribbean hopes to become the third film this summer to shatter box-office records.

Sunday estimates for the weekend box office of May 18-20:


Shrek 3 ($122M)
Spider-Man 3 ($28M)
28 Weeks Later ($5.1M)
Disturbia ($3.6M)
Georgia Rule ($3.49M)
Fracture ($2.3M)
Delta Farce ($1.8M)
The Invisible ($1.3M)
Hot Fuzz ($1.25M)
Waitress ($1.135M)
Next ($1.131M)
Blades of Glory ($1M)

[Ravi]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/7135957.stm

Compass not so golden in US chart

Fantasy film The Golden Compass has topped the North American box office despite disappointing ticket sales.

The $180m (£89m) movie starring Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig took $26.1m (£12.8m) in its opening weekend.

But distributor New Line Cinema said it was disappointed the film had not pulled in the $30-40m (£15-20m) it had hoped for.

Fairytale Enchanted fell to number two taking $10.7m (£5.3m), and comedy This Christmas took third with $5m (£2.5m).
   
NORTH AMERICAN BOX OFFICE
1. The Golden Compass - $26.1m (£12.8m)
2. Enchanted - $10.7m (£5.3m)
3. This Christmas - $5m (£2.5m)
4. Fred Claus - $4.66m (£2.3m)
5. Beowulf - $4.4m (£2.2m)
Source: Media By Numbers

With cinemagoers in the festive spirit, Vince Vaughn comedy Fred Claus rose two places to number four.

Fantasy epic Beowulf fell two places to five, in its fourth week on the chart.

Takings for the Golden Compass plus a generally weak field of films saw overall year-on-year sales down for the fifth consecutive weekend, according to tracking firm Media By Numbers.

The top 12 films in the chart earned $73m, (£36m) down 12% from last year.

[polkablues]

In a perfect world, this would teach the studios a lesson on the dangers of fucking with your source material.  The people who would be offended by the atheistic themes were still not persuaded by the studio watering them down, and the people who loved the books were discouraged by the lack of faithfulness to them, leaving only the eight-to-twelve-year-old kids who will see any movie with talking polar bears in the commercials.  As it turns out, there are only about (26.1 mil divided by $10)  2,610,000 of those kids.  Not enough to tie to a tentpole, unfortunately.

The moral of the story is, if you're making an atheist fantasy epic, just make an atheist fantasy epic.  Maybe for less than 180 million dollars, though.   

[Kal]

Amazing... 104 MIL for Iron Man? I did not expect something that huge... good for them.


   Title    Weekend     Gross
    Iron Man    $101M    $104M
    Made of Honor    $15.5M    $15.5M
    Baby Mama    $10.3M    $32.3M
    Forgetting Sarah Marshall    $6.13M    $44.8M
    Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay    $6.01M    $25.3M
    The Forbidden Kingdom    $4.2M    $45.1M
    Nim's Island    $2.75M    $42.5M
    Prom Night    $2.5M    $41.4M
    21    $2.1M    $79.1M
    88 Minutes    $1.6M    $15.4M

[Fernando]

This kind of sets the standards for the 2008 summer movies I think

For instance, if Indy does less than that or less than 90mill it'll be a flop unless it has legs for the upcoming weeks, as for other flicks this summer Hancock will do very well I'm sure and TDK should do better than Begins, hard to predict Speed Racer, Hulk and even WALL·E (that lovable fucker).

[Kal]

This kind of sets the standards for the 2008 summer movies I think

For instance, if Indy does less than that or less than 90mill it'll be a flop unless it has legs for the upcoming weeks, as for other flicks this summer Hancock will do very well I'm sure and TDK should do better than Begins, hard to predict Speed Racer, Hulk and even WALL·E (that lovable fucker).

Indy will break records... its on memorial weekend, parents taking their kids, new hero vs. old school... Shia Labeuf has more fans than U2... it should be one of the biggest of the year.

Speed Racer will do good but not as great as Iron Man... TDK has the Ledger factor, plus marketing is a lot more commercial than the first one... I dont know overall it seems like a boring summer for movies.. I'm excited about WALL-E

[cinemanarchist]

What are we guessing for Speed Racer's opening weekend? Tracking seems to show 30-35 million and I'm inclined to agree. Will this be the biggest bomb of the summer?

[Kal]

Not sure if it will be the biggest, but I'm sure it will bomb. I read it's the worst movie ever made. It has 35% on Tomato meter, but some of the reviews really destroy it. The Wachowskis were lucky and it seems obvious it was true that they stole the whole story for the Matrix from someone else.

[Kal]

TW   LW   Title (click to view)   Studio   Weekend Gross   % Change   Theater Count / Change   Average   Total Gross   Budget*   Week #
1   1   Iron Man   Par.   $50,500,000   -48.8%   4,111   +6   $12,284   $177,134,000   $140   2
2   N   Speed Racer   WB   $20,210,000   -   3,606   -   $5,604   $20,210,000   -   1
3   N   What Happens in Vegas   Fox   $20,000,000   -   3,215   +2,915   $6,220   $20,000,000   $35   1
4   2   Made of Honor   Sony   $7,600,000   -48.5%   2,734   +5   $2,779   $26,275,000   $40   2
5   3   Baby Mama   Uni.   $5,766,000   -42.7%   2,627   +79   $2,194   $40,377,000   $30   3
6   5   Forgetting Sarah Marshall   Uni.   $3,778,000   -37.7%   2,376   -496   $1,590   $50,772,000   $30   4
7   4   Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay   NL   $3,155,000   -48.4%   2,264   -281   $1,393   $30,716,000   $12   3
8   6   The Forbidden Kingdom   LGF   $1,900,000   -54.6%   1,724   -1,236   $1,102   $48,261,000   -   4
9   7   Nim's Island   Fox   $1,325,000   -50.5%   1,601   -877   $827   $44,257,000   $37   6
10   41   Redbelt   SPC   $1,140,000   +1,699.2%   1,379   +1,373   $826   $1,237,000   -   2
11   8   Prom Night (2008)   SGem   $1,050,000   -56.3%   1,465   -969   $716   $42,822,000   $20   5
12   9   21   Sony   $835,000   -58.3%   978   -1,264   $853   $80,418,000   $35   7

[cinemanarchist]

FINAL NUMBERS

1 1 Iron Man Par 51,190,629 -48% 4111 177,825,024 2
2 New What Happens in Vegas Fox 20,172,474 - 3215 20,172,474 1
3 New Speed Racers WB 18,561,337 - 3606 18,561,337 1
4 2 Made of Honor Sony 8,116,323 -45% 2734 26,791,494 2
5 3 Baby Mama Uni 6,225,790 -38% 2627 40,836,370 3
6 5 Forgetting Sarah Marshall Uni 3,837,240 -37% 2376 50,781,745 4
7 4 Harold & Kumar Escape Guantanamo WB 3,106,424 -49% 2264 30,667,308 3
8 6 Forbidden Kingdom Lions Gate 2,169,323 -48% 1724 48,530,104 4
9 7 Nim's Island Fox 1,463,622 -45% 1601 44,395,857 6
10 8 Prom Night Sony/Alliance 1,012,986 -58% 1465 42,785,107 5

[Kal]

Amazing that the studio lied before to get the #2 spot, but of course they couldnt hold on to it.

Embarrassment to open at #3 and after Ashton Kuchner.

[MacGuffin]

Audiences adopt 'Chihuahua' with $29M weekend

"Beverly Hills Chihuahua" was barking up the right tree with movie-goers, who put the Disney comedy at No. 1 for the weekend with a $29 million debut, according to studio estimates Sunday.

Featuring a talking Chihuahua with Drew Barrymore's voice, the family flick about a pampered pooch lost in Mexico led a surge of new movies that boosted Hollywood business, which generally has slumped the last two months.

The top-12 movies hauled in $95.4 million, up 42 percent from the same weekend a year ago, when "The Game Plan" was No. 1 with $16.6 million.

"We had a huge weekend," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Media By Numbers. "That's really due to the little Chihuahua. The little dog made a big difference."

The previous weekend's No. 1 movie, the DreamWorks-Paramount thriller "Eagle Eye," slipped to second-place with $17.7 million, raising its total to $54.6 million.

The PG-rated "Beverly Hills Chihuahua" took advantage of a long drought for movies aimed at families, who found the idea of a chatty Chihuahua irresistible.

"They're so cute, and they seem to have great facial expressions, so that adds to all the fun of the whole thing," said Chuck Viane, Disney's head of distribution.

Hollywood's other new wide releases had fair to poor premieres.

Sony's "Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist," starring Michael Cera and Kat Dennings as teens who fall for each other on a wild New York City night, had a sturdy No. 3 debut of $12 million.

The Warner Bros. Western "Appaloosa," which had played two weeks in a handful of theaters, expanded solidly to come in at No. 5 with $5 million. "Appaloosa" was directed by Ed Harris, who stars with Viggo Mortensen and Renee Zellweger.

Vivendi Entertainment's "An American Carol" a satire of Hollywood's liberal politics from director David Zucker ("Airplane!"), debuted at No. 9 with $3.8 million. The movie stars Kevin Farley as a Michael Moore-type filmmaker aiming to abolish the Fourth of July holiday.

Universal's "Flash of Genius," starring Greg Kinnear as the engineer who invented intermittent windshield wipers then spent decades suing automakers over the innovation, opened weakly with $2.3 million, finishing at No. 11.

Two other movies, the comedy "How to Lose Friends and Alienate People" and the apocalyptic "Blindness," both bombed.

Miramax's "Blindness," featuring Julianne Moore, Danny Glover and Mark Ruffalo in a nightmare tale about a plague of sightlessness, took in just $2 million, averaging an anemic $1,185 in 1,690 theaters.

"How to Lose Friends and Alienate People," released by MGM and starring Kirsten Dunst and Simon Pegg in a celebrity satire set at a slick magazine, did $1.4 million in 1,750 theaters for a feeble $801 average.

By comparison, "Beverly Hills Chihuahua" averaged $9,020 in 3,215 theaters; "Nick and Norah" pulled in $4,957 in 2,421 locations; "Appaloosa" did $4,799 in 1,045 cinemas; "An American Carol" took in $2,325 in 1,639 sites; and "Flash of Genius" did $2,120 in 1,098 theaters.

In narrower release, Bill Maher's documentary "Religulous" opened well, placing No. 10 with $3.5 million in 502 theaters, averaging $6,972. The Lionsgate release follows Maher as he travels the world to mock one of his favorite topics, organized religion.

Anne Hathaway's "Rachel Getting Married" had a strong start in limited release, taking in $302,934 in nine theaters for a whopping $33,659 average. The Sony Pictures Classics drama stars Hathaway as an addict who leaves rehab to come home for her sister's wedding and forces her family to relive the anguish of past tragedy.

Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Media By Numbers LLC. Final figures will be released Monday.

1. "Beverly Hills Chihuahua," $29 million.
2. "Eagle Eye," $17.7 million.
3. "Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist," $12 million.
4. "Nights in Rodanthe," $7.4 million.
5. "Appaloosa," $5 million.
6. "Lakeview Terrace," $4.5 million.
7. "Burn After Reading," $4.08 million.
8. "Fireproof," $4.07 million.
9. "An American Carol," $3.8 million.
10. Religulous, $3.5 million.

[MacGuffin]

`Chihuahua' fetches $17.5M to win another weekend

An adorable talking dog remained just the sort of escapist movie hero audiences wanted after a week of awful economic news.

Disney's family comedy "Beverly Hills Chihuahua," with Drew Barrymore providing the voice of the pooch, was the No. 1 flick for the second-straight weekend with $17.5 million, raising its 10-day total to $52.5 million, according to studio estimates Sunday.

"Beverly Hills Chihuahua" is the only light comedy in a market heavy on drama. Chuck Viane, Disney's head of distribution, said movie-goers may be turning to the perky pooch to help forget the market free-fall on Wall Street.

"This is only word-of-mouth coming back to us from theaters. I don't have any statistical proof. But they're telling us we're getting more unaccompanied-by-children adults coming on their own. They're looking for a little entertainment," Viane said. "The axiom we've always lived by is funny is money. People come out for comedy. They love to sit back and let someone give them a couple of hours of escapism."

The weekend's No. 2 flick the fright film "Quarantine," which debuted with $14.2 million filled the escapism needs for the horror crowd. The Sony Screen Gems release centers on a contagion that turns an apartment building's tenants into flesh-hungry monsters.

"It's probably the perfect kind of movie for today's climate," said Rory Bruer, Sony head of distribution. "Let's just get away from the news, from all that's going on, and go someplace else, and this is something that'll take you someplace else."

The marquee trio of Leonardo DiCaprio, Russell Crowe and director Ridley Scott had to settle for third-place with their terrorism thriller "Body of Lies," which had a $13.1 million debut. The Warner Bros. film centers on a CIA operative hunting the terrorist responsible for bombings around the world.

"Body of Lies" may have dealt with too sober a topic after all the disastrous financial news, said Dan Fellman, head of distribution for Warner Bros.

"I think we ran into really difficult timing. The nation suffered such an economic loss this week that the mood of our audience was such that they were probably looking for a little more escapism than to see a movie on terrorism," Fellman said.

The weekend's other new wide releases, Universal's football drama "The Express" and 20th Century Fox's family fantasy "City of Ember," opened weakly.

"The Express" starring Rob Brown and Dennis Quaid in the story of Ernie Davis, the first black player to win the Heisman Trophy came in at No. 6 with $4.7 million.

"City of Ember," with Tim Robbins and Bill Murray in a post-apocalyptic adventure set in an underground realm, took in $3.2 million to finish at No. 10.

Keira Knightley's historical saga "The Duchess" climbed into the top 10 as it expanded nationwide after three weekends in limited release. The Paramount Vantage drama, which stars Knightley as an 18th century aristocrat stuck in a loveless marriage, pulled in $3.32 million to place No. 9.

Two British movies started well in limited release. Guy Ritchie's London crime romp "RocknRolla" opened with $141,000 in seven theaters. The Warner Bros. release features Gerard Butler, Thandie Newton and Tom Wilkinson heading an ensemble cast.

Mike Leigh's "Happy-Go-Lucky," a Miramax release starring Sally Hawkins as a woman whose eternal optimism is continually challenged, premiered with $80,000 in four theaters.

Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Media By Numbers LLC. Final figures will be released Monday.

1. "Beverly Hills Chihuahua," $17.5 million.
2. "Quarantine," $14.2 million.
3. "Body of Lies," $13.1 million.
4. "Eagle Eye," $11 million.
5. "Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist," $6.5 million.
6. "The Express," $4.7 million.
7. "Nights in Rodanthe," $4.6 million.
8. "Appaloosa," $3.34 million.
9. "The Duchess," $3.32 million.
10. "City of Ember," $3.2 million.

[atticus jones]

nice thread dread warning...speaks to reel progress

and sew im off with another top ten from this weak at the moovies

#10...17 again...wait...how many other movies would i rather watch this week than a rehash of the im young again but with my adult mind intact? seventeen?  how about a remake called "10 again" starring lil fanning and bo derek?  now there's a movie for the reel pedophiliacs

#9...monsters vs aliens...in 3D no less...shiiiit...shoulda thrown sum double d in there for the grown ups...reese scares me and zelwegger from another planet so they got that right...seth rogen as b.o.b. (bring yo own bong) cuz aint nothing funny bout watching overpaid undertalented screen actors gettin rich on the planet v.o.

#8...obsessed...hmm...maybe they shoulda obsessed a bit more on casting, directing, script development, etc....if i wanna see jerry oconnel or beyonce cant i just watch the mtv music awards or sum shit...jungle fever meets fatal attraction meets sum junk i filmed on me 8mm camera back in 82

#7...ghosts of girlfriends past...i still think this woulda played better as a reality tv series where michael drug less and matthew mc con man hey compete to bang all the women jennifer garner's ex's dumped before getting stuck on her

#6...x men origins...if u are interested in reading this u are an ass wipe...only origins u should be concerned about are your "i used to get my ass kicked in grade school and beat off to comic books in my step dads basement" origins...spew jack man's meat massage mania is a magnificent magical masturbatory mess

#5...dance flick...flick it like a booger...from sum dead crack ho's nose...just another reason to pray that n koreas first u.s. bound miss by a mile hits oakland...wayans are way past they ilc love...now just plain shame...got so many generations my generations gonna have to watch them shit 4eva

#4...angels and demons...least they dint call it angels vs demons...dint see it but i figure the angels pitching and defense should be nuff to win...t hanks said theres no crying in baseball but i do shed a tear for him...this was sad tommy boy...you need to cast away these projects and remember philly

#3...star trek...made for people who hate the original by people who disguise unoriginal as original...jj not so dyno mite...kirk and spock shoulda battled naked arnold terminator in california prop 8 debate whilst sean penn rallied the inhabitants of lost series...including a naked neve cambell cameo as matt fox's sister who explains the metaphor of the island through interpretive dance

#2...terminator salvation...tag line: the end begins...ooooooooh...i just wanted the beginning to end...and the middle to end...and the end to end...get the picture?  mc g whiz u nutz kid

#1...night at the museum...went to this movie the other night and a museum broke out...lights went out...i kept shouting, "ben, you stiller?...ben you still here?"...i like him more when he's funny...rob and williams too...owen wilson shoulda sick finned himself while he was funny and getting laid by playmates...no he's just plain alive and dodging skank hudson...that was mean...didnt mean it...i meant to say hate hudson

luv ya all like alan ball...6 ft under

[Pas]

  hahaha